Republican Primary

Mother Tribune:

Even as state Sen. Kirk Dillard still hopes a counting error will cut into state Sen. Bill Brady's slim lead in the Republican governor's contest, he's already helping his rival prepare for the general election campaign against Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn.

"Other than Bill, no one wants this over faster than I do," said Dillard, a veteran lawmaker from Hinsdale. "I want to get on with my life."

Dillard's comments came Tuesday as county clerks and election officials representing the 110 ballot-counting agencies across Illinois sent the findings of their canvass of Feb. 2 primary results to the State Board of Elections. The elections panel is scheduled to certify the results March 5.

But Dillard indicated he might not wait that long to decide the fate of his campaign for governor. Trailing Brady by about 250 votes, Dillard has set a bar of finishing 100 votes or fewer behind his rival as the trigger for a recount.

"I'd prefer to say up or down before" March 5, Dillard said, adding that he wants to hear a final figure issued from a state elections official.

I am very, very gratified that the two candidates and two campaigns have been cordial and cooperative.

(Disclosure: I helped Kirk Dillard's campaign for Governor.  I guess the past tense there says it all.)

Champaign County's final results from the Primary election are in, and late-arriving totals added 12 votes for Bill Brady and 6 votes for Kirk Dillard.  Similar final counts are happening throughout Illinois today, and should provide a clearer picture about who won the Republican nomination for Governor.

As an aside, I managed 299 votes for Precinct Committeeman in City of Champaign 38, the fourth-highest total in the County.  Thanks to everyone who voted for me.

Discuss to your heart's content.

What are your predictions for tomorrow's Primary elections?

I'll refrain from predicting a GOP winner, as I'm too closely involved, but for the rest mine are:

Dem Governor:

• Hynes - 54 percent
• Quinn - 46 percent

GOP Senate:

• Mark Kirk - 72 percent
• Pat Hughes - 12 percent
• Others - 16 percent

Dem Senate:

• Giannoulias - 41 percent
• Hoffman - 29 percent
• Jackson - 25 percent
• Others - 5 percent

What are your predictions?  What other races have caught your attention?

PPP says, via CapFax, that Kirk Dillard and Dan Hynes have opened up narrow leads in the race for their respective parties' nominations for Governor:

A primary loss for Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is looking more and more possible. He trails Dan Hynes 41-40 in our poll of the race.

Hynes’ slight advantage is due largely to a 45-38 lead with African Americans, suggesting that a controversial ad featuring former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington making disparaging comments about Quinn may be working to Hynes’ advantage. The two candidates are tied among white voters with Quinn holding a 44-36 lead with Hispanics.

Quinn’s approval rating even among Democratic primary voters is just 38%, with an equal 38% disapproving of his job performance. 35% of voters view Hynes favorably to 25% unfavorably.

This race could still go either way but the momentum is in Hynes’ favor given his huge deficit in polling just a month ago.

The Republican race is even more up for grabs with five candidates polling within eight points of each other. Kirk Dillard is at 19%, followed by Andy McKenna with 17%, Bill Brady with 16%, Jim Ryan at 13%, and Adam Andrzejewski at 11%. Of the remaining candidates only Dan Proft with 7% is not in double digits.

Full poll here.

(Disclosure:  I am helping the Kirk Dillard for Governor campaign.)

As most everyone on here know, I'm helping Kirk Dillard's campaign for the Republican nomination.  It should come as no surprise to you that I was hoping to win the endorsement of the News-Gazette, even though such endorsements are worth less and less in an age of declining newspaper circulation and increasing distrust of newspaper editorializing.  In addition, I've had my disagreements with NG endorsements before, most particularly when I find them to be completely illogical. 

As an example, in early 2009, the NG endorsed D'Anne Winston for City of Champaign Township Supervisor.  While I disagreed with the selection, the reasoning behind it was baffling.  In the very editorial in which they endorsed Winston, the NG explained that they were opposed to her on what they considered the most important issue, and they had taken issue numerous times with how the office had been run while she worked there.  Yet they endorsed her based on her experience - the very experience they said they disagreed with.  As I said, it was baffling.

This weekend, the NG endorsed Sen. Bill Brady for Governor.  Again, I'm affiliated with one of Brady's opponents, but Sen. Brady is a good candidate who would be a nominee I could proudly support if he should win the nomination.  His candidacy isn't the issue here, but rather it is again the NG's illogical reasoning behind supporting the candidate.

The NG argues:

Illinois is dominated by Chicago Democrats. All six statewide offices and both top legislative leadership positions are held by Chicagoans. To them, downstate Illinois is more of a theory than a reality. It's a non-factor – except as a place to collect votes occasionally – when it comes to policy issues.

Voters need to restore a balance to the state's political calculus if any area other than Cook County is to have a seat at the table. Brady's opponents are from the Chicago and suburban areas and are, therefore, less inclined to understand geographical issues as clearly as Brady.

They go on to laud Brady's devotion to a ten-percent across-the-board spending cut for every aspect of State Government.  The illogical aspect of the endorsement is that on one hand they proclaim Brady a champion of downstate who understands geographic issues, while the paper simultaneously praises a ham-handed plan for spending cuts that will disproportionately impact the very downstate communities like Champaign-Urbana, Macomb, Carbondale and Springfield that Sen. Brady is supposedly best able to represent. 

For example, the UI budget has been cut by about 30 percent in real dollars since the Democrats took control of state government in 2003.  Other downstate institutions of higher education have been similarly impacted.  Yet Brady, and the NG, think that the lack of leadership by Illinois Democrats should be compacted by endorsing a plan for indiscriminate spending cuts that is the very abdication of leadership.  And the NG proclaims this while touting Brady as the best hope for Downstate voters.  It just doesn't make sense.

Please join me in support Sen. Kirk Dillard for Governor on February 2.  And thanks for reading.

Former Governor Jim Edgar today endorsed Sen. Kirk Dillard, his former Chief of Staff, in the race for Governor:

"I am proud to endorse Kirk Dillard for governor because his experience and leadership will help steer our state through its current budget and ethical crisis," Edgar said at news conferences held in Chicago and Springfield.  Edgar, the popular two-term Republican Governor from 1991-1999, left office with the highest voter approval ratings of any Illinois Governor in modern history.

Dillard, elected four times to the Illinois Senate, was Edgar's first chief of staff in the Office of Governor. "Kirk knows what it takes to lead in tough times.  As my Chief of Staff, he played a key role in our success during my first term as Governor.  His in-depth knowledge and effective leadership were essential in helping me to restore fiscal discipline to the state," said Edgar, who was re-elected Governor by the largest margin in Illinois history.

The press release is here, and we'll have video, photos and news coverage collected there throughout the day as well.

(Disclosure: I'm helping Kirk Dillard's campaign for Governor.  Please volunteer or donate today!)

Shameless Plug Alert: 

The Kirk Dillard for Governor campaign is hosting a free, informal breakfast for Republican voters, volunteers, officials and Precinct Committeemen. 

The breakfast will be Monday, July 27, 2009 from 8-9 AM at the Hilton Garden Inn, 1501 S. Neil, Champaign. 

RSVPs are not required, but are encouraged to 217.369.4716, via email to ghulten@dillardforgovernor.com, or on Facebook.

(Disclosure:  I'm - obviously - helping Kirk Dillard's campaign for Governor.)

Rich Miller points out something interesting about Sen. Matt Murphy, a presumptive Republican candidate for Governor.  This one gets to me because of my interest in civil justice reform - Murphy's law firm describes itself as:

The firm always confines it’s practice to representing plaintiffs and injured persons. We have never represented insurance companies, employers or other defendants.

Is there something wrong with representing employers?

(Disclosure: I am helping Kirk Dillard's campaign for Governor.)

State Sen. Kirk Dillard will announce his candidacy for Governor tomorrow:

KIRK TO ANNOUNCE FOR GOVERNOR OF ILLINOIS
Please join us as Kirk officially announces his candidacy for Governor of Illinois.

Wednesday, July 8th
10:00 A.M. - Hinsdale Memorial Building - 19 E. Chicago Ave., Hinsdale, IL
1:00 P.M. - Rockford International Airport - #2 Airport Circle, Rockford, IL
4:00 P.M. - Governor Oglesby Mansion - 421 W. William, Decatur, IL

Thursday, July 9th
8:00 A.M. - Microtel Inn & Suites - 200 S. Third St., Quincy, IL
9:00 A.M. - Washington Park, Fifth & Main, Quincy, IL
11:00 A.M. - St. Louis Downtown Airport - FBO Jet Aviation Terminal, 6200 Curtiss-Steinberg Dr., Cahokia, IL
2:30 P.M. - Williamson County Regional Airport - 10400 Terminal St., Marion, IL
4:00 P.M. - Peoria International Airport - 6100 W. Everett McKinley Dirksen Parkway, Peoria, IL

To RSVP for any announcement locations, please contact us 630-571-0390 or email DillardForGovernor@gmail.com.

(Disclaimer:  I will be helping Kirk Dillard's campaign for Governor.)

The candidates are still sorting themselves out a bit, but let's take an early look at the Republican candidates for Governor of Illinois.

• Adam Andrzejewski:  unknown, no electoral history, but is taking advantage of his early start.  In person, his earnestness and speaking cadence remind me a lot of Peter Fitzgerald when he first ran statewide.  AA seems to have lots of Ron Paul's supporters, and he has a ton of personal money to spend.
• Joe Birkett:  I think the DuPage County State's Attorney is as yet unannounced, and I think he'll end up running for Attorney General once Lisa Madigan announces whether she's running for Governor or Senate.  Either way, he's back in the news now for the Brian Dugan / Nicarico case, which can't help.  He and Bob Schillerstrom (below) also have a pretty fierce, intra-DuPage County rivalry.
• Bill Brady:  re-run of 2006, when Brady's campaign was so lackluster that the Milk Duds accused him of being a stalking horse for Judy Baar Topinka.  He has no organization, and is still carrying a $650,000 campaign debt from his 2006 run.  Currently, as Rich Miller puts it, "Bill Brady reiterated his stance yesterday that the governor should sign the budget that Brady voted against."
• Kirk Dillard:  No announcement yet, but supposed to be one next week.  Dillard has great credentials (Gov. Edgar's Chief of Staff, well respected state legislator, etc.) but still catches heat for doing an early TV commercial for Barack Obama in Iowa, though he later was a McCain delegate.  Lots of my friends are supporting Dillard, and he seems to be putting together a terrific organization.
• Matt Murphy (website is blank):  Yet another state senator, but one with a much lower statewide profile than Dillard or Brady.  Murphy seems to be the choice of Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno, which is odd given that two of her other members are also running for Governor, with a number of others considering other offices.
• Bob Schillerstrom:  DuPage County Board Chair who has never run statewide.  He has about $650,000 in the bank from his DuPage County campaigns.  His message is that he's not connected to the mess in Springfield, and has executive experience, but given his public feud with Birkett and his lack of statewide organization, I wonder what his base will be.

Lots will change between now and petition circulation, not the least of which is Lisa Madigan's announcement.  How do you see the GOP field at this point?

Rep. Mark Kirk is getting hammered by Republicans and conservatives for his vote in favor of Friday's "Cap and Trade" global warming legislation. 

Greg Hinz seems to think that his vote makes Kirk more likely to run statewide, for the US Senate. 

But President Obama's home state now is bright blue and Mr. Kirk's "yes" vote would be helpful, maybe very helpful in rebutting Democratic charges in a statewide race that Mr. Kirk is just another out-of-touch Republican.

 Mr. Kirk wasn't available to discuss his vote, and his office hasn't even released a statement. But his voting record has drawn consistent applause from environmentalists, who compose a big chunk of the base vote in Mr. Kirk's north suburban district.

I disagree, and think that it's more likely he now runs for re-election to the House in Illinois' Democratic-leaning 10th District.  Thoughts?

Doug Whitley will not run for Governor.

I’d like to share with you some of my thoughts and insights about the campaign and the decision to abandon the effort at this time.

I am especially grateful to have been well received everywhere I went. I believe my reputation,career experiences and messages have consistently resonated with attentive audiences. Countless people have expressed interest and volunteers have emerged. Donors have offered to host events to raise funds. Local party people warmed to the idea of a newcomer, non-professional politician who talks about ideas, action and solutions. People responded well to my passion for the role of Governor.

Even so, a reality check was necessary.

Discuss.

As he is flying around the state announcing his campaign for Governor, Sen. Bill Brady is also interviewed by WDWS for a podcast.

Surprising no one, Sen. Bill Brady will announce on Monday that he's running for the GOP nomination for Governor.

(Hat tip: CapFax)

Karl Rove thinks Illinois Republicans have an "easy message" in 2010:

"The people are looking closely at the quality of candidates you put forward," Rove said. "You better not claw yourselves up and bloody yourselves up and cut yourselves up in a primary."

That is crucial, Rove mentored at a Schaumburg fundraiser, because the time is ripe for a GOP comeback in the statewide 2010 elections, or a potential special Senate election, given the arrest of Democratic former Gov. Rod Blagojevich and scandal surrounding Democratic Sen. Roland Burris.

"It strikes me that you have a pretty easy message," Rove told the several hundred attendees at the Schaumburg Marriott. "If you want change from the way things are then you ought to elect yourself a Republican governor."

I agree with him on one thing: 2010 will come down to the quality of the candidates.  I don't see anyone yet on the Republican side who can stand up to Illinois' Democratic A-team (Lisa Madigan or Dan Hynes).  The big question in both parties is who will emerge from the primaries.

Jason Barickman was unanimously re-elected as Chairman of the Champaign County Republican Party tonight.

Anybody have any updates from the Democrats' Convention?

UPDATE:  Congratulations as well to Tony Fabri on being unanimously re-elected as Democratic Party Chair.

There are primaries today in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia.  Latest polling data is here:

• GOP:  MD, VA
• Dems:  MD, VA

If Hillary loses all three by 15+ points, as the conventional wisdom is projecting, will she be able to survive, momentumless, until Ohio and Texas vote in early March?

If McCain wins winner-take-all Virginia, will Huckabee drop out?

Go ahead and make all the jokes you want about the state of the Illinois Republican Primary, as they've certainly earned it.  But there's even more evidence against this meme that Illinois Republicans are leaving the party in droves to support Barack Obama.  The total number of GOP ballots cast in Illinois:

1988        899,153
1990        805,381
1992        878,438
1994        729,372
1996        868,030
1998        759,102
2000        781,318
2002        946,339
2004        702,658
2006        751,627
2008        883,647

Clearly, Democratic turnout Tuesday was phenomenal.  But the underlying reason is that they attracted a huge number of voters who normally don't vote in either Primary. 

Will those voters vote Democratic in November?  If Obama is the nominee - almost certainly. 

For the rest of the ticket?  Perhaps - it will depend on the race and the locality and the issues, etc. just as it does every other year.  But it will also depend on how closely local and state candidates tie themselves to Obama if he is not the nominee.

And, of course, if Clinton somehow wins the nomination, then almost all those independent voters are completely up for grabs.

Tom Kacich's normally excellent Wednesday NG columns are usually not available online.  However, today's column, discussing yesterday's results, is here:

It's the first time Democratic voters have outnumbered Republican voters in a primary election in the county in at least 70 years, if ever. Eight years ago, in the last presidential primary where there was no incumbent president on the ballot, Republican voters outnumbered Democrats, 21,308 to 11,762. The previous peak for Democratic primary voters was 17,110 in 1992. The Republican record is 21,308 in 2000.

Tuesday's overall turnout of 39,055 voters, including 173 Green Party voters, also was a record, improving on the previous high of nearly 34,000 voters in 2000.

Several precincts in the county ran short of Democratic ballots, and freshly printed sheets had to be rushed to the polls. A precinct in Savoy where four years ago Republicans outnumbered Democrats, 272-161, had the tables turned Tuesday. Democrats this time outpolled Republicans, 353-271.

The numbers he highlights point to the conclusion I drew here:  yesterday's record Democratic turnout wasn't a result of Republicans pulling Democratic ballots as much as it was independents pulling Democratic ballots.  Of course, that's still not much comfort to Republicans.

Kacich also touches on the Urbana Parks referendum and some other topics.  Read the whole thing.