Lots of bad news for Illinois Republicans today, or so it would seem.
The Tribune released more details about its statewide poll today:
The percentage of Illinois voters who call themselves Democrats is at its highest pre-election level in more than a decade, posing a problem for Republicans trying to win the governor's mansion and key congressional seats, a Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.
The poll found 43 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats while a little more than a quarter of the voters identified themselves as Republicans. The 17 percentage point difference ranks among the most polarized partisan spreads in more than 16 years of Tribune surveys taken prior to an election day.
Rich Miller has analysis and discussion, including an excellent bit of history (the partisan breakdown of Survey USA's monthly tracking poll). Basically, Survey USA says that the gap between Democrats and Republicans has been as high as 22 points (June and August).
A couple of comments on the Trib poll.
- Despite the somewhat shoddy reputation of the Trib poll, I think the partisan breakdown is probably mostly accurate, given what we've seen from other statewide polls.
- I've seen a lot of downstate legislative polling in 2006, and I've not seen the partisan breakdown shift so heavily towards the Democrats, although there has been a shift.
- There are two possible explanations for this. The first is that every pollster and every poll I've seen downstate has failed to document a much-greater Democratic shift. The second is that the vast majority of the partisan shift towards Democrats is occurring in Chicago and Cook County. The Tribune doesn't detail, by region, what kind of shifts its poll found. And the Survey USA polls don't cross-tab their polls so that you can compare partisan composition across regions.
In a nutshell, I expect Chicago and Cook County to vote more heavily Democrat than ever, as Mayor Daley needs to reinvigorate the machine, Todd Stroger runs for Cook County Board President and Gov. Blagojevich needs every vote from Cook County. And I expect downstate, as a whole, to vote more Republican (or, more properly, vote more anti-Blagojevich) than it did in 2004 and 2002, but less so than it did in the 1990s.
And I expect regionalism to be even more pronounced after the election.