If you look back at the timeline surrounding the resignation of Denny Hastert you can get a sense of how things need to work out in the Rahm Emanuel vacancy. The short of it is that if Emanuel wants to avoid socking the taxpayers with a multimillion dollar special election bill, he ought to submit his resignation very soon.
Denny Hastert resigned on November 26, 2007. 7 days later Blagojevich issued a writ of election for a February 5th primary and March 8 general. Blagojevich wanted the special on a Saturday and apparently didn't want to do it the weekend of Palm Sunday.
State statute then kicked in
(10 ILCS 5/7-12) (from Ch. 46, par. 7-12)
Sec. 7-12. All petitions for nomination shall be filed by mail or in person as follows:
(1) in the case of petitions for nomination to fill a vacancy by special election in the office of representative in Congress from this State, such petition for nomination shall be filed in the principal office of the State Board of Elections not more than 57 days and not less than 50 days prior to the date of the primary.
This meant that the first day for filing of the petitions was December 10 and the last day was December 17, providing just one to two weeks to circulate and file petitions. If Blagojevich had decided immediately (and there was no reason since the Hastert appointment was known weeks before), he would have given candidates an extra week to circulate.
So how can the Emanuel seat fit into the current election schedule? If the primary for Emanuel is to be held on the same day as the February 24th primary, then filing for the seat would have to begin on December 29th and end on January 5th. To fit into the same schedule that was implemented for the Hastert vacancy, Blagojevich would have to issue a writ of election on Monday, December 22nd, making today a good day for Emanuel to submit his resignation.
Emanuel could quit later and Blagojevich could still issue a writ of election that includes the February primary. If Blagojevich does that after January 5th, then it would prevent candidates from filing. This type of scenario has played out in the past with other vacancies and caused people to be nominated with write in campaigns. But a new state law requires write ins to file 61 days prior to the election, which would be December 26th. So that option appears to not be viable.
While it's never been done before, the Governor could adopt my idea and just issue a writ for the general election and create a vacancy in nomination that would be filled by the Congressional Committees of the three established parties. Judging by the response I've received so far, I don't think it's likely he'd adopt that method.
That leaves us with two possibilities. The first is that Emanuel resigns in the next few days and the Governor, who's got his mind on other things at the moment, issues a writ of election for the February 24th primary by December 29th, hopefully sooner.
The second possibility is that Emanuel resigns after the window closes for a February 24th primary and thus forces a special election to be called outside of the current election schedule. If it's just one election outside the current schedule, you can anticipate the cost to Cook County taxpayers of $2 million. If it's two elections outside the window, double it.
The 2009 election calendar made it prudent for Emanuel to hold off his resignation. But the same calendar makes it prudent for him to announce that resignation in the very near future.
For a little Champaign County history you can see the writ of election that was issued by Jim Edgar when Ed Madigan was appointed in 1991 to be Secretary of Agriculture. And the election results are available at the Champaign County Clerk website. Primary results (1% turnout) and general results (13% turnout).