2010 Election

Dillard - Brady Update

We will know more tomorrow:

The Illinois Republican Party finally may have a nominee for governor.

 State Sen. Kirk Dillard, who's been trailing colleague Bill Brady by a couple of hundred votes, has scheduled a press conference for Friday afternoon, and all indications are that he finally will concede the race.

 A press advisory sent out a bit ago says only that Mr. Dillard will "provide an update on the status of his campaign," following a meeting of the Illinois State Board of Elections to certify final election totals.

Discuss.

(Disclosure:  I helped Kirk Dillard's campaign for Governor.)

The Denouement

Mother Tribune:

Even as state Sen. Kirk Dillard still hopes a counting error will cut into state Sen. Bill Brady's slim lead in the Republican governor's contest, he's already helping his rival prepare for the general election campaign against Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn.

"Other than Bill, no one wants this over faster than I do," said Dillard, a veteran lawmaker from Hinsdale. "I want to get on with my life."

Dillard's comments came Tuesday as county clerks and election officials representing the 110 ballot-counting agencies across Illinois sent the findings of their canvass of Feb. 2 primary results to the State Board of Elections. The elections panel is scheduled to certify the results March 5.

But Dillard indicated he might not wait that long to decide the fate of his campaign for governor. Trailing Brady by about 250 votes, Dillard has set a bar of finishing 100 votes or fewer behind his rival as the trigger for a recount.

"I'd prefer to say up or down before" March 5, Dillard said, adding that he wants to hear a final figure issued from a state elections official.

I am very, very gratified that the two candidates and two campaigns have been cordial and cooperative.

(Disclosure: I helped Kirk Dillard's campaign for Governor.  I guess the past tense there says it all.)

Nice Guys Finish Last

By last I mean in the classic Lombardi definition of anything except first place.  Witness Art Turner.  During my relatively short time working in Springfield, I never heard anyone say a bad word about Turner.  He waited his time as others picked off the plum high paying jobs like Cook County Recorder or Chicago City Clerk. 

Then his chance came.  He jumped into a crowded field for Lieutenant Governor.  Even with his nemesis Ricky Hendon in the race, Turner's chances looked pretty good.  Then, a multimillionaire swoops in with lots of cash to edge him out.  Certainly, without Cohen in this race, Turner wins handily.

If you're like me, you'd think that Turner would be the easy pick by the Democratic establishment.  But apparently, you and I would be wrong.  At this time Democratic leaders are looking for a way to get Turner out of the way and find someone else for the ticket that helps their electoral chances.

It would certainly be making lemonade out of lemons for the Dems.  Quite frankly, both parties would probably like the chance to pick their LG candidate after their Gov nominee is selected for the various issues of balance.  So the Democrats are getting what either political party would like.

Which begs the question as to whether the smartest man in Springfield, Mike Madigan, saw this coming.   There is nothing that Madigan cherishes more than his majority in the House.  Over the years we've seen him make seemingly odd political decisions that in retrospect look smarter when considering his House electoral chances.

When Madigan pulled out the stops for Glenn Poshard it raised eyebrows.  But it's not unlikely that the moderate Poshard's presence on the ticket helped some of his downstate target candidates who didn't have to campaign with Carol Mosely Braun as their standard bearer.

In 2002 he backed the little known Mike Kelleher for Lieutenant Governor, undoubtedly looking for a way to give some downstate balance to his Chicago heavy statewide ticket.

Now it's 2010 and perhaps Madigan has another balancing act up his sleeve.  Whatever the pick is, if it's not Art Turner people should be left to wonder whether Madigan didn't sit on the Cohen revelations before the election knowing that he could turn those revelations to his advantage after the election.

Final Results

Champaign County's final results from the Primary election are in, and late-arriving totals added 12 votes for Bill Brady and 6 votes for Kirk Dillard.  Similar final counts are happening throughout Illinois today, and should provide a clearer picture about who won the Republican nomination for Governor.

As an aside, I managed 299 votes for Precinct Committeeman in City of Champaign 38, the fourth-highest total in the County.  Thanks to everyone who voted for me.

THE Tea Party Candidate Who Wasn't

I met Adam Andrzejewski at the Champaign County Republican Lincoln Day Dinner last year.  He was a nice guy, but I never thought he had much of a chance in his race for Governor.  He ran relatively quietly under the radar for most of the election, polling generally in low single digits.

Then, he did something rather brilliant.  He convinced a number of non-Illinois conservative leaders that he was THE tea party candidate for Illinois and created a little bit of a national boomlet.  Red State, Gateway, Instapundit, and Geraghty all touted Adam as the Tea Party candidate. It culminated the day before the election when Rush Limbaugh called him the next Scott Brown. 

Andrzejewski was certainly A tea party candidate, but the suggestion that somehow he was THE ONLY one with a grip on those people who would associate themselves with the tea party movement was ill informed.  And no one should take his 14% total as reflecting the state of the tea party movement in Illinois.  In declining degrees, I'd say that Proft, Brady, and McKenna could all comfortably wrap themselves around the less taxes, less spending, less regulation efforts of tea party activists.

It's interesting that Limbaugh would call the never-elected Andrzejewski the next Scott Brown.  Brown held three different elected positions.  Chris Christie served as US District Attorney.  Bob McDonnell served as AG in Virginia as well as a number of other positions.

I think it will take a lot more than some nifty reform slogans for candidates to sway Republican primary voters.  At least some degree of public service will still carry signficant weight, and will probably always be required.

At the same time, Andrzejewski's national momentum strategy was brilliant and was executed to perfection. 

Andrzejewski represents a lot of what is encouraging about the future of the Republican Party.  I hope he remains involved.

Election Day Comments

Please let me know your thoughts on election day.

Primary Results Open Thread

Discuss to your heart's content.

Primary Predictions

What are your predictions for tomorrow's Primary elections?

I'll refrain from predicting a GOP winner, as I'm too closely involved, but for the rest mine are:

Dem Governor:

  • Hynes - 54 percent
  • Quinn - 46 percent

GOP Senate:

  • Mark Kirk - 72 percent
  • Pat Hughes - 12 percent
  • Others - 16 percent

Dem Senate:

  • Giannoulias - 41 percent
  • Hoffman - 29 percent
  • Jackson - 25 percent
  • Others - 5 percent

What are your predictions?  What other races have caught your attention?

Bill Brady in town on Monday, February 1st

On Monday, February 1st, Republican Gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady will be flying into Willard Airport (Flightstar) and talking with supporters.  Everyone is invited to ask questions and to provide well-wishes for the Feb. 2nd election.  If you have any questions about the event or campaign, please contact Erin Solomon at esolomo@gmail.com or Jeff Kibler at catch22uofi@yahoo.com

 

Location: Willard Airport, Flightstar

Time: 12:15PM, Monday, February 1st

Dillard, Hynes Leading For Governor

PPP says, via CapFax, that Kirk Dillard and Dan Hynes have opened up narrow leads in the race for their respective parties' nominations for Governor:

A primary loss for Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is looking more and more possible. He trails Dan Hynes 41-40 in our poll of the race.

Hynes’ slight advantage is due largely to a 45-38 lead with African Americans, suggesting that a controversial ad featuring former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington making disparaging comments about Quinn may be working to Hynes’ advantage. The two candidates are tied among white voters with Quinn holding a 44-36 lead with Hispanics.

Quinn’s approval rating even among Democratic primary voters is just 38%, with an equal 38% disapproving of his job performance. 35% of voters view Hynes favorably to 25% unfavorably.

This race could still go either way but the momentum is in Hynes’ favor given his huge deficit in polling just a month ago.

The Republican race is even more up for grabs with five candidates polling within eight points of each other. Kirk Dillard is at 19%, followed by Andy McKenna with 17%, Bill Brady with 16%, Jim Ryan at 13%, and Adam Andrzejewski at 11%. Of the remaining candidates only Dan Proft with 7% is not in double digits.

Full poll here.

(Disclosure:  I am helping the Kirk Dillard for Governor campaign.)

Schillerstrom leaves the hunt

(Golly, it's 2010 already?  I'm starting to feel old!)

with a hat tip to Poor Richard:

http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/2005778,schillerstrom-governor-race-012210.article

Ryan's just fooling himself if he thinks he can win in November.

Because I Can: Early Voting

I voted early this week, and as usual the staff at the County Clerk's office handled things flawlessly.  A picture, though is worth a thousand words:

 

Things are going to get interesting this last ten days.  The Illinois GOP Governor's primary has been pretty civil to date, but the trends are going to result in lots of attacks from all corners.  Please remember, that at the end of the day, only one thing matters:  putting Illinois back to work.  I remain convinced that Kirk Dillard is the candidate who is both most likely to win next November, and who is most capable of competently governing on conservative prinicples once elected.  I hope you will join me in voting for Kirk Dillard for Governor.

Oh, and one more picture after the break, for vanity's sake: (click on "read more"):

Frerichs, Senate Dems Funds

State Sen. Mike Frerichs has laid serious groundwork for his re-election campaign.

Frerichs' latest campaign disclosure report, filed Tuesday, shows that he has $198,555 on hand, a record sum for any Senate candidate in the 52nd District at this point in the election cycle.

And, if he needs help, the Illinois Senate Democrats are as well-funded as they've ever been:

The Senate Democratic caucus committees took in over $1,919,000 in the last six months. Over the last four election cycles for this time period the caucus committees average of just over $940,000 with the best period being just over $1,120,000 in 2005. The Senate Democrats financial prowess shows no signs of slowing as they have already filed over $130,000 in contributions since January 1st.

Discuss.

IL GOP Governor Polling

This is from an email from the Kirk Dillard for Governor campaign, with which I am affiliated:

Our latest poll shows us gaining strength and putting some distance between Kirk Dillard and his opposition. While we employ both interview and automated polls, our large-sample automated returns are clearly showing that Illinois Republicans are making up their minds about the Primary Election, and Kirk Dillard is their top choice.

These large-sample (2,000-3,000+ participants) polls are always conducted in the most straight-forward manner possible. Unlike our opponents who have been conducting push-polls, our surveys simply ask each participant who they will vote for in the race for Governor and then reads the list of candidates so they can choose. This is the same method that correctly predicted the GOP upset win in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, and is considered by many sources, including the Wall Street Journal, to be the most accurate method of predicting the outcome on Election Day.

These polls show that Kirk Dillard’s message about re-building Illinois' economy, curtailing Springfield's wild spending habits and bringing ethical, proven leadership to the governor's office is resonating:

Andrezejewski 5.64%
Brady 8.30%
Dillard 22.38%
McKenna 13.52%
Proft 6.03%
Ryan 10.26%
Schillerstrom 2.13%
Unsure 31.74%

Especially heartening is the fact that the gains we've made are being realized throughout the state, and are strongest among those most likely to voter.

Undecideds are still the plurality.  And this is a poll from one of the campaigns, so if that makes it worthless to you, so be it.  There has been precious little public polling on the GOP Governor's primary since the new year, so I thought I'd share it.  Rich Miller has a little bit more on it here:

I did see the background material on the Dillard poll, and they make a decent case that Dillard - and McKenna - are both spiking upwards.

I'll have more thoughts on McKenna in a bit.  :-)

Something Has to Change

Something has to change.  That would be my response to IP's questioning of the NG endorsement.  Two facts are evident right now in Illinois.  First, we are spending far beyond our means.  Second, we have an economic climate that is dismal, and is sending jobs (and revenues) out of state.

The two answers to these problems are to reduce spending or to raise taxes.  Not surprisingly, the Democrats are generally united behind a tax hike.  Surprisingly, a few Republicans are as well.  While potentially attractive in the short term to institutions like the University of Illinois, in the long term it will mean even fewer jobs and even less revenue.

Too few Republicans are getting behind the idea of reducing spending.  Yes, there will be some short term pain, much like there was when Jim Edgar did the same thing in 1991.  But in the long term, spending reductions today will result in more revenue.  Hopefully this year will be the year that we actually see belt tightening measures taken rather than merely tapping the taxpayers. 

In response to a poster in another post, I'd point out that the deficit is not $11 billion.  Not even close.  Deficits are defined as the difference between what a government takes in and what they spend in a single year.  That number is probably closer to $4 billion.  The rest of the so called deficit is actually accumulated debt.  Yes, it has to be paid off.  But remember that raising taxes to cover the accumulated debt will leave the government with lots of extra money to spend, even after they've chased more jobs out of the state.

NG's Illogical Endorsement

As most everyone on here know, I'm helping Kirk Dillard's campaign for the Republican nomination.  It should come as no surprise to you that I was hoping to win the endorsement of the News-Gazette, even though such endorsements are worth less and less in an age of declining newspaper circulation and increasing distrust of newspaper editorializing.  In addition, I've had my disagreements with NG endorsements before, most particularly when I find them to be completely illogical. 

As an example, in early 2009, the NG endorsed D'Anne Winston for City of Champaign Township Supervisor.  While I disagreed with the selection, the reasoning behind it was baffling.  In the very editorial in which they endorsed Winston, the NG explained that they were opposed to her on what they considered the most important issue, and they had taken issue numerous times with how the office had been run while she worked there.  Yet they endorsed her based on her experience - the very experience they said they disagreed with.  As I said, it was baffling.

This weekend, the NG endorsed Sen. Bill Brady for Governor.  Again, I'm affiliated with one of Brady's opponents, but Sen. Brady is a good candidate who would be a nominee I could proudly support if he should win the nomination.  His candidacy isn't the issue here, but rather it is again the NG's illogical reasoning behind supporting the candidate.

The NG argues:

Illinois is dominated by Chicago Democrats. All six statewide offices and both top legislative leadership positions are held by Chicagoans. To them, downstate Illinois is more of a theory than a reality. It's a non-factor – except as a place to collect votes occasionally – when it comes to policy issues.

Voters need to restore a balance to the state's political calculus if any area other than Cook County is to have a seat at the table. Brady's opponents are from the Chicago and suburban areas and are, therefore, less inclined to understand geographical issues as clearly as Brady.

They go on to laud Brady's devotion to a ten-percent across-the-board spending cut for every aspect of State Government.  The illogical aspect of the endorsement is that on one hand they proclaim Brady a champion of downstate who understands geographic issues, while the paper simultaneously praises a ham-handed plan for spending cuts that will disproportionately impact the very downstate communities like Champaign-Urbana, Macomb, Carbondale and Springfield that Sen. Brady is supposedly best able to represent. 

For example, the UI budget has been cut by about 30 percent in real dollars since the Democrats took control of state government in 2003.  Other downstate institutions of higher education have been similarly impacted.  Yet Brady, and the NG, think that the lack of leadership by Illinois Democrats should be compacted by endorsing a plan for indiscriminate spending cuts that is the very abdication of leadership.  And the NG proclaims this while touting Brady as the best hope for Downstate voters.  It just doesn't make sense.

Please join me in support Sen. Kirk Dillard for Governor on February 2.  And thanks for reading.

Removing Quinn February 2nd

I can argue all sorts of reasons why Dan Hynes is a better candidate than our current governor, but I imagine any readers here can check out the candidates' policies on their pages and history themselves for such a determination pretty quick. I'd just like to add to that consideration, especially those leaning towards or on the fence about Quinn, something that honestly should not be forgotten.

 

Our last election led to Illinois being center stage of a national embarrassment. This was not some unexpected shocker given that the guy who won the last Democratic Party primary was already under state and federal investigation with several corrupt acts in the public domain. And while Quinn personally vouched for the integrity and honesty of that man, and would love to get away with playing dumb now... don't let him.

 

I'll let the guy who ran the anti-corruption campaign against Blagojevich in that primary explain why people like Quinn simply do not deserve re-election in the State of Illinois let alone any position of trust over Illinois citizens (in its entirety here):

 

In 2006 I challenged Rod Blagojevich in the Democratic primary for governor. I ran because Blagojevich sold out the public for piles of campaign cash.

 

I said “no” to Blagojevich when it mattered.

 

A very savvy pol recently said to me, “Ed, if we only knew then what we know now.” I replied that we did know it then. He laughed and admitted it was so. That’s a far more grown up response than the “I-knew-it-was-bad-but not-this-bad” dodge that’s in vogue.

 

They all knew. The majority of the House impeachment report cited documents that were public before the election — the same documents I cited when arguing the governor should not be re-elected. Instead of standing with me at the time, the party leaders poured over my petitions to see if they could keep me off the ballot.

 

The governor had spent his first term raking in campaign cash at the astonishing rate of $2,667 per hour, giving him millions to spend on re-election. (I won’t here revisit how he raised this cash, who is already jailed because of it, or what services the people of Illinois were cheated out of to secure these gifts.)

 

Nearly all of the state’s Democratic politicians calculated, correctly but shortsightedly, that rallying around the governor would ensure their re-election. Voters count on their leaders to stand up when it matters. Voters also deserve choices. With the 2006 election looming, Democrats could look forward to neither.

 

...

 

I ran a tough but underfunded campaign and came up short. Still, by the time the election came I had a lot more company than I did at the beginning. A handful of Democratic politicians began to distance themselves from the governor. A few were quite helpful. Many others publicly worked for the governor’s re-election but privately wished me well. Several editorial boards endorsed my campaign. More than a quarter of a million ordinary Democrats voted for me and I carried a handful of counties.

 

On election night 2006 I talked about our values and the better angels of the Democratic Party. I said we would ultimately prevail and clean up our state. A reporter followed up asking me if that was a concession. I certainly was conceding the night. But I never would, and never will, concede the fight to change the poisonous culture of corruption in Illinois.

 

Edwin Eisendrath challenged Rod Blagojevich in the 2006 Democratic Primary. Eisendrath served as HUD regional administrator in the Clinton administration and two terms as a Chicago alderman.

 

Quinn played a central role in ensuring Blagojevich's re-election. He threw away his reputation and dignity. The choice is simple: hold Blagojevich's enablers responsible this election season, or send them a clear message that voters no longer care about accountability.

 

I'm voting for accountability. I'm voting for Dan Hynes on February 2nd.

The Politics of Seating Winners

A suggestion is being made that even if Scott Brown wins the special Senate election in Massachusets on January 19th that he won't be seated for at least a month.  We've had experiences with special elections in Illinois as well.  In 2008 I recall being at a State Board of Elections meeting discussing the seating of the replacement for Denny Hastert. 

Discussion then moved to the request from the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives for unofficial election  results of the March 8 special election. Member Brady indicated that he spoke with the Clerk’s office and it is their practice to evaluate unofficial results. If it is clear from the unofficial results who the victor is they would act immediately and seat the member.

The House Clerk had submitted a letter requesting a pre-Canvass certification of results which I've attached below.

By unanimous vote the Board decided to submit to the House Clerk the unofficial results of the election.  The vote was not without ramifications according to Foster's wikipedia site.

Although it was initially thought that Foster would not be sworn in until April due to the need to count absentee ballots before the first election would be certified, he took the oath of office on March 11. On his first day in office, he cast the deciding vote to keep from tabling an ethics bill that would create an independent outside panel to investigate ethics complaints against House members.

I have no doubt that a call from our post partisan President will expedite the seating in a similar manner should Brown win.

 

Andy McKenna is lying!

Perhaps I've not been paying attention, but the loudest candidate I hear yelling, "No More Taxes" is Andy McKenna.  The laws of math still apply.  I don't want new taxes, but how else can this problem be solved.  Certainly not by lies.

If 50% of the money (I'm hearing the problem is nearing $12 BILLION) comes from cuts, I'd be happy.  But you cannot "CUT" your way out of this growing hole!  That is the "God's Honest Truth."

Man up ALL CANDIDATES!  Really tell us how you'd fix this problem.  We'll choose.

Edgar-Kirk Meet & Greet

Gov. Jim Edgar and US Senate candidate Rep. Mark Kirk will be having a free event next week.  Details here.

Join Governor Jim Edgar
for a Meet and Greet Tailgate with
Congressman Mark Kirk
Republican Candidate for US Senate

Tuesday, January 12
6:00 – 7:00 pm
iHotel, Alma Mater Room
1900 S. First Street, Champaign

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