Open Thread (7/9/2009)

http://cbs2chicago.com/local/prison.stateville.budget.2.1077666.html

Being there for a drug offense is not the same as being non-violent. Breaking it down as to what imate is violent, but just happens to be in on a drug charge, vs. an inmate who was just too persistentlty supporting his own habit, would require 10,000 case-by-case examinations. Suddenly releasing 10K people with a proven proclivity to commit crimes will likely have an impact of overall crime stats. All of the crimes they are not committing while incarcerated will most often start up again. Thefts, burglaries, new drug crimes, traffic offenses related to substance use, domestic behaviors related to substance use, and so on, will start to appear in the over-all crime stats.

Cutting 38 percent of the prison population is worth looking into----but that puts a lot of prison construction workers on unemployment, frees up the court systems, cuts the tax dollars going to support public defenders as well as prosecutors----too big of an economic impact----leave the drug laws on the books, we can always reuse all those prisons for schools some day with some minor modifications.

On July 9th, 2009 at 10:12 PM, Oil Man said:  "Cutting 38 percent of the prison population is worth looking into----but that puts a lot of prison construction workers on unemployment, frees up the court systems, cuts the tax dollars going to support public defenders as well as prosecutors..."

How many new prisons are being constructed in the state of Illinois currently?  Any?  Are there significant numbers of "prison construction workers" that would be left without employment if the Illinois Department of Corrections' budget was cut by (roughly) a third?  You might have an argument that ongoing maintainence and repair of prisons could refer to "prison construction workers", but I believe that consolidating prisons and reducing the overall prison population (by releasing some large percetage of non-violent drug offenders) would mean fewer facilities to maintain and repair.

Also, how does cutting the Department of Corrections budget affect local public defenders or prosecutors?  They aren't covered by the same state budget, at all; each individual county is responsible for paying the personnel costs of their public defenders and state's attorneys.  More precisely, the State does fund some portion of the salaries in question, just not all of them (or even a large percentage of them).  Again, how would cutting the Department of Corrections budget by about a third reduce the funding for public defenders or state's attorneys?

HG

Can someone provide a link to the article about the M2 condos?

Michael Fuerst             

(Click here for Urbana postage stamps, T-shirts and bumper stickers.)

I'm well aware of the pricing on the condos; my friends and I have shared many laughs about that.

I'm curious to see if prices are cut before or after the ownership changes on that building (and its sister across the street).  Probably won't have any action on this for 2-3 years.

Did anyone else see the announcement on Ch. 3 tonight regarding One Main in Normal?  Apparently the city is making noises about putting the lot up for rebid since no development has occurred yet.

Ads for apartments at reduced prices always appear this time of year.

Michael Fuerst             

(Click here for Urbana postage stamps, T-shirts and bumper stickers.)

I wasn't a part of the personal attacks, but I did write the 2:30 comment.  It is my opinion that the jury is still out on whether One Main, etc. has been a net positive or a net negative for the downtown area.  When we develop we should develop for long-term impact, not short term bumps.  CC development is not rooted in sound economic theory, for the reasons I cited above, so it will not surprise me if the theory fails.

Bars and restaurants are not the foundations of a health economy.  They are the icing on the cake, as it were.  They have it all backwards in downtown Champaign, but I do hope they succeed.  Even if it means more bowties.  :)

On July 29th, 2009 at 01:09 PM, amee (not verified) said:

I moved here right before One Main was built.

Per their website, One Main was built in 2004.

There was a little going on downtown, but nothing like it is now. The difference? One Main

Well, Amee, I moved here almost 20 years ago, and yes, for many years downtown wasn't nearly as developed as it is now.  However, I'm more likely to credit the development to loose credit policies and general economic expansion than to One Main and its associated set of developers. 

And all their condos sold, although everyone was SURE they wouldn't

The condos may have sold the first time around, but how's the resale market been going?  It was bad even before the economy tanked.  

 and they sold at what were considered ridiculous prices.

Yes, the prices were ridiculous, but live here long enough and you'll get used to people coming here from Chicago and the East Coast and California and paying far more than what properties are really worth.  The rest of us get hosed in the bargain, but hey, they got theirs, and we got the shaft, right?

Furthermore, the U of I bought one of the largest condos in One Main.  You can argue that university ownership is good because it provides stability in that particular building, but those were our tax dollars used to purchase a condo in that particular, tax-supported development.  Can you see why some of us might have an issue with that, especially since the University could have bought a house out at the Champaign Country Club or Lincolnshire Fields and still had money left over, plus they wouldn't be using our tax dollars to pay a monthly condo assessment?

M2 is bigger and more ambitious, but they're following the same basic formula

Some of us will argue that the basic model had flaws, and making it "bigger and more ambitious" will only amplify those flaws, not cure them.  Not everything in life is scalable.

In the meantime, who else out there is thinking ambitiously for the City? Atkins did with Clearview and it has nothing out there. The City built a very expensive road for it that it now has to pay back with our tax dollars. But no one on here is celebrating that. No one here is happy Clearview is struggling (or, worse yet, has failed.)

Plenty of ambitious thinkers out there, but how many have the support of the City Manager and Planning Director?  Not all of us were happy at the Clearview announcement, and we have suspicions it will be a looooong time (minium 10-20 years) before any development occurs out there.  Clint Atkins has ways of getting $$$ from the city, he just isn't as boastful in the local papers, and he didn't get his wife elected to City Council.  

Clearview is so far a bust. But everyone here is happy that M2 is struggling. It's not failed. It's not a bust and yet people are waiting for it to be.

No, I'm not happy that Clearview is a bust or that M2 is struggling (frankly, I think both developers should have had to put up more equity before they were allowed to proceed, but I'm not the banker or the mayor).  And I'm not happy that my tax dollars were poured into either project.  I'm very concerned how much of an albatross these two developments will be on the City's neck for the next few decades, and how badly will we wind up cutting other parts of the city budget to pay for them?

It's infill development, not greenfield.

Infill development is a good thing, and I'm always glad to see it.  I just prefer to see fewer tax dollars supporting it.

One Main Development builds green, it builds high quality,

They may build green, but we need to have a discussion about their quality.  I have toured their condos and found the quality lacking, especially since the condos were priced at almost $200/square foot.

 none of the people in One Main Development have a private plane (much less two) and still, everyone on IP just gets vicious about them.

Not everyone here is in love with Clint Atkins, either.  He just seems to keep a lower profile. 

I like Luna, and I like that Luna came to downtown Champaign from the middle of nowhere campus.

I liked Luna when it was in Campustown, and I'm glad it has found a new home in the old Train Station.  Are you aware that the building Luna used to be in is slated to be torn down and replaced with apartments at some point in the future?  The building is owned by Tom Gillepie and a group of investors.

I would love to live in a condo in M2 or One Main even though I've only seen pictures. And I'm staying in this area largely because of Downtown Champaign and everything One Main and M2 have done for it.

At this point, I'm left asking:  Amee, do you work for One Main or M2?  If you don't, you can always keep an eye out for open houses and tour the building and its condos that way.  That's how I got in. 

I'm staying here because I'm waiting for my adolescent to finish school.  At that point in time, I'll decide if I'm staying here or moving to a new town.  The new town, however, will have to pass a high bar after I've lived around this big university and vibrant twin cities for so long. 

And yes, I have young kids.

Please spend lots of time enjoying them.  They'll be surly, hulking teenagers soon enough!!  ;-)

On July 29th, 2009 at 02:30 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

We need food and shelter before we need video games, but if a farmer walked past One Main this afternoon he would probably be asked to move to the other side of the street.

I would argue, anon 230, that if said farmer were an organic farmer he might well be embraced and offered an opportunity to sell his products directly to the tenants at One Main and M2. 

On July 29th, 2009 at 02:44 PM, amee (not verified) said:

I'm not sure I buy all the Florida Kool-Aid, but it seems to me that without One Main there probably would be no: Escobar's, Guido's, Cowboy Monkey, Blind Pig (on Walnut OR brewery), Cakes on Walnut, Carmon's, Luna, Pekara, Aroma, Bacaro, and a whole bunch of banks and condos. They all came in after One Main.

Escobar's came into being around the same time One Main opened.  Mark Marstahler has been renovating and re-developing properties in and near downtown since at least the early 1980's.  Guido's was originally a bar called 2 Main, and was developed by Tracy Parsons (former head of the local Urban League) and some partners.  After it became successful (Phil Bloomer, who is now Tim Johnson's spokesperson and in his prior life was a columnist for the News-Gazette, described it in the N-G as having a "preppy vibe with a Ja-Rule soundtrack"), they cashed out and sold it to the Nietos, who have apparently changed it up a little. 

Blind Pig and Cowboy Monkey have an interesting history.  I remember going downtown in 1991 to get a nice vegetarian lunch with a Grape Nehi 3-4 days a week at the original Blind Pig, 6 Taylor St.  Phil  Knight (a professor at the U of I) and some partners started this bar, sold it in late 1999 or 2000 to some cops who tried to change the theme and failed within 6 months.  It was then taken over by the Nietos and became Cowboy Monkey by 2002.  Phil started the new Blind Pig around 2003-2004 (sorry, don't have the dates here).  I think we can now agree that Mr. Knight's and the Nietos' interest in downtown occured long before One Main came into being, and I would argue that Mr. Knight's interest in a microbrewery could be explained by his "day job", or perhaps by profits from the Pig, or perhaps even by the desire to avoid losing business to Destihl (which, by the way, has been announcing that it's moving into M2 over two years, but hasn't even made an attempt to finish out their space yet.  I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for them to show up over here, especially since the banks are clamping down so hard on credit.).

Carmon's was owned and operated successfully by Paul Damske for something like 30 years.  Not all of us were pleased to see one of our favorite breakfast spots turned into a creperie, even if finer French food is coming back into favor with the dining public.  If memory serves, Aroma and Bacaro slightly predate One Main, or opened around the same time.  Cakes is here to ride out the cupcake boom; I'll be curious to see if they are still in business in 5 years, or if they radically transform their model to stay in business.  Luna has been discussed previously.  Pekara may be riding the One Main boom, but I prefer to talk about the life story of the lady who founded it.  Do you know she was an immigrant from the Balkans? 

Are you aware that in May of 2007 Citibank stock was selling for almost $55/share, and each share paid almost 54 cents in quarterly dividends (it closed at $3.22/share today, and the dividend?  bupkis!)?  Many banks enjoyed booming stock prices and (seemingly) profitable operations in the early to mid-2000s, and expanded accordingly.  Champaign-Urbana was not immune to this effect, and some of these banks chose to chase depositers in  downtown Champaign, rather than risk the crowded market in Southwest Champaign.  I don't know how many of the proposed branches will open, or will open and sport another name on their facades in 5 years (assuming their acquirers keep them open; branch closings tend to be a nasty side effect of bank mergers or takeovers). 

Condos, I will concede, have been rapidly expanded by One Main/M2.  In the past, there have been apartments in downtown, but most owners wanted to keep the stream of rental income.  To his credit (or maybe to the taxpayer's regret), Cody was one of the first guys downtown to choose to give up rental income for condo and management fees instead.  Will it work out?  I don't know, but I can tell you I (and many of my friends) consider the prices asked for the condos to be ridiculous, and we aren't queueing up to pay for them. 

Bubble or not, that investment in downtown spurred investment by others that wasn't happening without it - or, maybe it might have happened, but it would have been much slower and less focused.

Amee, I think you and I can agree that bubbles in any asset class (whether it be housing, stocks, or Dutch tulip bubbles) generally tend to end badly and damage the areas where they have been occuring in for many years, if not decades, after they collapse.  And what is the issue with development that is slower and less focused?  Admittedly, it may impact an area's economic growth, and you can argue economies of scale when you are dealing with one larger developer, rather than 6-10 smaller guys.  However, I would argue that slower growth may well be more focused, as you have time to observe what is working and what isn't.

On July 29th, 2009 at 03:06 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

I don't think anyone that's posted here is looking for something to fail. Quite the contrary. But just maybe if some of what really goes on both here and globally were pointed out ahead of time, just maybe the current state of the economy might not be as it is. I for one would love to be wrong when I think something might be up with something, but I also like to dig around for myself to see if there's anything under any rocks that should be looked at. Doesn't mean I'm all hating on something. Come on, get a thicker skin.

Here's some news for you... the world could use a bit MORE impolite if it meant heading off some failures.

Not often I found myself agreeing with an anon, but this is one of those occasions.

On July 29th, 2009 at 03:07 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:
Guido's was bought over market? Who knew? Who cares.

Well, if I were the Nietos' banker I might care, but the Nietos have managed to pull this one off.   Here's to hoping their luck holds out in the future.

To Anonymous 8:29A--When I suggest that people would gain a great deal of understanding related to the use of economic incentives for any economic development by mention the Greg Leroy book, I do so related to all and any incentives that communities use for economic development. Some incentives are useful, some incentives are way over used and misused, and some incentives never repay back to the community. My comments have never been directed to any one project. I did previously mention that the research that I did for my masters in urban planning was on TIF districts so I do have a bit more depth of understanding of this type of incentive.

Further, just the other day I posted the current fracas connected with Richard Florida since he moved to Toronto and the U. of Toronto. The residents of that city are working on riding him out on a rail. The creative class concept is no different than any other planning concept when over used, misused, and misunderstood. This definitely has happened with this concept as with others. We need to go back and reread Jane Jacobs.

Pattsi Petrie

Absolutely Pattsi, that ought to be the bottom line issue but in terms of incentives enterprise zones have a limited time frame for the abatement (5 to 10 years in our County), taxing districts get to decide whether they want to participate, and EZ abatements result in actual cash money saved to the developer.  TIFs offer none of that, only a vehicle for a municipality to collect more than their share of property tax revenue, provided they spend the TIF portion in the TIF district. 

Just a couple of clarification questions--I was told that a bank would be occupying the former space of Great Impasta. Correct or not? Then also a bank will be in M-2. Correct or not? What will occupy the old Gallery building? As I look west on Church from the corner of Church, Main, and Neil, the fabric of that street just is not working. Is there any news about the potential development that might happen on the sites of the burned buildings across from M-2? Or are the owners still working on an insurance settlement?

Pattsi Petrie

To Anonymous @ 2:48 P--your response did not include answers to my straight forward questions.  Pattsi Petrie

On August 4th, 2009 at 05:19 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

The failure of M2 is bad for downtown.  I'm just curious as to why the city invested so much in a firm that has completed only one building with principals that have little development experience.  It makes you really wonder what Normal was thinking.

On the contrary, Anon 5:19, Cody married into a family (the Dodds) with at least 4 or 5 generations of building things around town.  When the new library opened, there was something in the News-Gazette about Julia Burnham being Marcy Dodds' great- or great-great-grandmother.  The city and the bank thought they were going with a sure thing.  Now, we're finding out that maybe that wasn't so true. 

What was Normal thinking?  They were thinking things had worked out well over here, so why not do the same thing in Normal?  After all, Bloomington-Normal has State Farm and is the center of the universe.  If we snot-nosed punks can do something like One Main here in Champaign, those people over there will do it and do it better!!  (And yes, I'm not too fond of Bloomington-Normal.)

Just keep in mind that both One Main and M2 are sitting on the locations of old parking lots in downtown Champaign.  I am not saying that is a good or bad thing, but that land was handed to the developers essentially as a gift, and now the taxpayers also get to foot the bill for the parking garage that is replacing what we already had.

Why?  So hipsters will stay in town and bless us with their presence and disposable income.  Yay!  Brilliant!

I wouldn't argue that I personally knew that the economy was going to crash, though I will say that I and many others had thrown up our hands in disgust when the financial sector was deregulated.  We said then that it would lead to disaster, but I don't think anyone wanted to hear it.

For the record, I haven't lost much of anything in the current economic downturn because I have steadfastly refused to believe in Wall Street's smoke and mirrors for years.

That said, the problem with the developments does not root itself in the larger economic picture.  The problems are in the fundamental assumptions underpinning creative class developments.  It is not sound economic practice to pour millions of tax payer dollars into subsidizing luxury condos in a mid-level college town in the midwest.  It doesn't take a brain surgeon to understand that the market for luxury condos in a place like this is going to be very, very small.  One building every ten years would be pushing it.  Two in five years is absurd.

So why did they do it?  They believed the quacks who conjured up the Creative Class nonsense, and they didn't do their homework.  They believed the "New Economy" was going to save us all and fussy little details like salaries, benefits, and low overheads were a thing of the past. 

For my part I have been criticizing the creative class mindset for over five years now.  I have written letters to the editor, posted multiple blog posts, and even talked to members of the City Council about this very subject, to no avail.

Or, to put it another way, how long do you think Urban Outfitters is going to last on campustown now that dropping $50 on a dress in college makes about as much sense as spending $3000 a month for a view of downtown Champaign?

We is in trouble.  But don't pretend nobody warned this day would come.

A is for Anonymous,

have you had the chance to visit the Urban Outfitters in Campustown?  The adolescent has had me take him there so he could buy a pair of tennis shoes that were unavailable anywhere else in town (and only cost him $50, so I won't complain too much), and he has bought a couple of t-shirts there.  This is the only Urban Outfitters I've been to, so I can't compare it to any other stores in that chain, but I can tell you the Campustown store sells jeans, housewares, cosmetics and tights, shoes, books, and home decorative items.  They sell clothing for both sexes.  I would argue that they were probably very smart to locate themselves in Campustown, as students can get to them without going to the mall or North Prospect, they are an aspirational store for middle schoolers and high schoolers, and I even bought a cute dress there on clearance (only $20!). 

And really, $50 for a dress is cheap nowadays.  If you want to argue that it makes no sense to buy a $500 dress when one is in college I will agree with you, but if you price dresses at the mall you will find most well-made dresses are at least $75-100.  Yes, you can buy dresses at Forever 21 for less, but they specialize in "fast fashion", a.k.a. low quality schmattes. 

I would be willing to bet Urban Outfitters will do better than most stores at the mall over the next 5-10 years. 

have you had the chance to visit the Urban Outfitters in Campustown?

You could be right about Urban Outfitters.  I actually hope you are because my wife seems to like it quite a bit.

I think my point goes more to the prominence of "upscale" retail that has come into campustown in the last five years.  $8.00 burritos, $4.00 cups of coffee - that kind of thing.  It works well in flush times, but when disposable income goes south these  places tend to dry up.  And let's not forget that we are dealing with college students here.  A lot of these people have a hard time making rent. 

We'll see ...

Anonymos 1:56 --

Yes, of course I agree that if M2 were to fail (and we can debate that definition another time), this would harm downtown Champaign.  But that's quite a bit different than "it would take downtown with it."

FWIW, lines at Chipotle are out the door every weekday at lunch time and often for the dinner hour too.  Fajita burrito in there is $6.44 including tax.  Granted it's a bit pricier than McDonald's, but it's not out of line with any of the other restaurants there on Green Street.

Green Street is a MUCH more inviting place than it was circa 1994/1995.  I'll admit, I was among those who kinda laughed at the idea of the streetscaping, and I still think the styrofoam panels on the first-remodelled buildings (White Hen and Busey Bank) are horrid.  But the trees are finally getting to a decent size, the stores that are there DO seem to be doing good business (including Urban Outfitters - even if the clothes aren't your thing, they have some interesting little novelty goods in there to look at).  Starbucks always seems full, and the old Green Street coffeehouse space is being turned into an expansion of Murphy's.  Coco Mero took over the Moonstruck space, etc.  It's a mix of local and chain shops.

Yes, some businesses that I liked way back when have closed, notably Space Port (the arcade), Record Service, and Babbitt's (used books).  I also miss the regular bookstores, used to be that Follett's and TIS both had a full regular bookstore selection.

However, I think it's just cultural and business trends that closed that stuff - no one plays at arcades anymore now that home networked game consoles and PCs are where the action is, people don't buy so many CDs anymore for the usual reasons we can debate about, and people get books on Amazon.  Plus you gotta remember that North Prospect only really got going around 1994, and now that's where Best Buy and all that is.  People who DO buy CDs now get them either there or online.

But back then, the street just looked less nice, and there was endless hand-wringing at the U of I about how the entrance to campus just looked terrible when compared to the "campustown" streets of UW/UM.

But plenty of businesses have survived, too - Art Coop and Ron's Hardware among them. I go to both of those fairly frequently.

Downtown Champaign could use some actual STORES, one convenience store there in the thick of it would be great. The new County Market is pretty well located though.  Still, occasionally I'm downtown and think I need to buy a pen or some batteries, and find myself wishing for a 7-Eleven.