Open Thread (7/14/2008)

Monday, July 14, 2008.

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I wonder if the Republicans can explain to me the thinking behind the Straight Talk Express kicking Phil Gramm overboard.  What he said was undeniably true.  We're not in a recession and American public officials (Gramm made clear he was not talking about Americans, just their leaders) are whiners.  So why would McCain, Mr. Straight Talk Himself, fire Gramm?  I just don't understand it.

IlliniPundit's picture

If you can figure out any sort of rationale behind John McCain's campaign, its strategy or tactics, please let me know.  To me, they just appear to be completely lost, without a plan, and reacting every day by the seat of their pants.

John Bambenek's picture

You're giving them far too much credit, Gordy.

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j
Part-Time Pundit

Regnad Kcin's picture

We're not in a recession...

Ezra, did you just get off a bus from Mars, or have you been listening to too much Romney Channel on your I-Pod? 

Take heed that no man deceive you.

Or is this your tongue-in-cheek sarcasm that this country boy didn't detect?

Maybe it's not just a recession but "the Big One".

 

 

John Bambenek's picture

A recession is a technical term. It means two quarters of negative GDP growth. 

 According to the last numbers from the BEA that I saw, we're still growing.

Predictions show a growth for the year as well.

That's not to say we aren't facing problems, but you'd think examples like this would show how it's bad politics for the left to be CAUSING economic misery, especially when it is not warranted.  The long-term sustained economic warfare that *some* Democrats have been waging on the United States economy speaks volumes about their moral compasses and their fitness for governing.

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j
Part-Time Pundit

There are no tongues in my cheeks, Mr. Kcin.  I believe Mr. Bambenek is correct about the meaning of a recession.  Maybe, Mr. Straight Talk Express fired Gramm because STE ("Economics is not my strength,") doesn't know what recession means and thought Gramm was lying.  Or maybe STE found out about Gramm's ties to Enron and to the current UBS bank scandal but thought people wouldn't understand why he was being fired for those obscure scandals but would understand him being fired for accurately stating the U.S. is not in a recession.  Or maybe Gramm is to blame for STE being against the Bush tax cuts before he was in favor of them.  I don't know; I just thought the Republicans could explain this to me.  I'm sure it must have something to do with keeping our country safe against terrorists.

There's now a libel suit against publishers of the bible ...

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/religion_theseeker/2008/07/can-you-sue-the.html

 

Regnad Kcin's picture

Just because "official declaration of recession" is done retrospectively doesnt mean that you can't figure out where things are in "real-time".

We have double-digit inflation and banks are going busted and we are only at the portals of  what is to come.

Regnad Kcin's picture

There's now a libel suit against publishers of the bible ...

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/religion_theseeker/2008/07/can-you-sue-the.html

 

Well, Mr. Fowler is most certainly bewildered, demoralized, and mentally unstable and he should have no problem proving it. But he had best take up his problem with the Author since he has trouble with his Word.

Certainly the Bible is seriously tough on homosexuality, the same as it is with all forms of perversion.  If you think Paul is a bigot, compare Moses.  Of  course this is only bigotry to those trying to find a cloak for their errata.  The deeds of the flesh are evident.  God will not be mocked, whatsoever one sows that also shall he reap. 

Maybe Fowler overlooked Psalm 91.2-3.  (Zondervan usually need not worry.)  I will say of the LORD, He is my refuge and my fortress: my God; in him will I trust. Surely he shall deliver thee from the snare of the fowler, and from the noisome pestilence.

And Psalm 68:11 - The Lord gave the word: great was the company of those that published it.

:)

Glock21's picture

Gramm wasn't disowned for what he said... but the way he said it.  McCain has been fighting the DNC and Obama on their painting him as insensitive to the needs of those who are facing hard times and have gone out of their way to rip partial quotes (and sometimes partial sentences) out of context to make him sound that way.

 

Gramm gave the other side a pile of ammo.  McCain merely tried to take out the primers so they couldn't be fired.  Whether or not that was an overreaction or a necessary political move is the real question.  If one of Obama's economic advisors made similarly unpopular remarks I'm sure the McCain campaign and groups supporting him would have been salivating to use them against him.  Accuracy and popularity often do not go hand in hand when you're trying to win over the people who still haven't decided at this point in the election.  Only the 'truth' matters, and politicians are constantly defining that for the voters who can't figure it out for themselves.   Mmmm... politics.

 

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Glock21 Op/Ed

 

There's now a libel suit against publishers of the bible ...

Actually, if you'll look closely, it's not about "the Bible" at all, but particular words translated in a particular way that may not be supported by the text. Not that I think he has much of a legal leg to stand on.

 

It's all moot, of course, since Ragnarok is imminent and with it, the return of the True Gods who will destroy the world in their battle with the evil giants.

IlliniPundit's picture

"It's all moot, of course, since Ragnarok is imminent and with it, the return of the True Gods who will destroy the world in their battle with the evil giants."

Then we've found The Messiah just in time.

Then we've found The Messiah just in time.

Along with his trusty sidekick, Saint McMaverick. Why does this duo remind me of a bad X-Men knock-off?

McCain is very skillful at using people in a strategic way.  He can take Grahm out of the firing line now and bring him back later.  He sure got Huckabee, Rudi, Crist, Arnold Swartznager, and Romney to come around.  He is very politically savvy and sure did a number on my boy in Florida.  Was it luck to put Huck in Iowa and have Rudi wait till Florida and have Arnold ready with the big endorsement in California?  

So what move would I expect someone sneaky like McCain to pull.  Here is what he knows.  (1)  The Clinton campaign told him that 90% of blacks are voting for Obama.  (2)  75% of registered  evangelicals will  not vote for Obama (way too liberal.  (3)  McCain is too old, so will promise to be a one term president and say-Obama has no experience-"try me for 4 years while he proves himself as a legislator" (actually Hillary will like this too) (4) McCain is not very smart (actually, Obama isn't either, but to liberals writing and speaking and wishing and hoping are important).  His VP  pick    almost certainly is Romney-if for no other reason than non-government health plans.   

If you look at the 2007 campaign contributions you will see that Romney, exclusive of his own money,  did  pretty well in fund raising.  Most of the $2300 donors are sitting on their hands waiting (freestrongamerica.com) which is Romney's McCain fund raiser, will not heat up until their boy gets nominated.  I would also not be too surprised to see a Gingrich contract with America  Thus he will not waste money where he cannot win because of the black vote.  He will enlist Huckabee by promising him a "job", if he delivers evangelicals. He will state he will only serve one term and show case all the candidates (government by committee).  He will pick my boy as his running mate. 

 

 

D. Boon's picture

According to the last numbers from the BEA that I saw, we're still growing.

Of course this assumes that the GDP is an accurate measure of the nation's economic health.  But the GDP number is incredibly biased for growth and is no longer healpful in measuring the economy.  For example, GDP includes "imputations", also known as phantom income, which have been slid into the equation that is used to measure nationwide personal income data.  So the BEA now counts the imputed income from owning your own home, the benefit you receive from a free checking account, and even the value of employer-paid health- and life-insurance premiums.  Last year imputed income accounted for 15% of total GDP.  Go figure.

Worse yet is the "birth/death of businesses equation" that is now used to fudge employment numbers by creating phantom jobs.  And of course we are still using unemployment numbers that do not accurately reflect the real level of unemployment in the workforce as "discouraged" workers are no longer counted, much less "long-term discouraged" workers, nor social-security disability recipients.  The fact is that unemployment in this country is probably over 8 or 9 percent.  The government has just stopped counting everyone.

I could go on.  The CPI is now a joke (look up C-CPI-U).  Anyone ever heard of "product substitution", "geometric weighting" or "hedonic adjustment"?

The truth is that the numbers have been fudged for decades now to make the economy appear much better off than it actually is.  In times like these the real numbers would scare the living sh#t out of most people, so it might be better that we don't know.  But it would nice to think somebody somewhere is paying attention to the real world instead of these imaginary statistics.

I won't even bother addressing the idea that liberals are to blame for this economy.  This bad boy is born and raised in deregulation.  You conservative kids have had your ideas come to fruition and guess what?  We're screwed.  Twenty-eight years of sophomoric economic analysis and ideas have resulted in one of the worst economies we have seen in the history of this country.  You all advocated letting the foxes run the hen house and now we are supposed to be surprised to find nothing but feathers?

Four more years of conservative economics might actually kill this country.  I'm serious.

Twenty-eight years of sophomoric economic analysis and ideas have resulted in one of the worst economies we have seen in the history of this country.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc?

You're making a very bold (and possibly unsubstantiated and/or hyperbolic?) statement here...

IlliniPundit's picture

"Four more years of conservative economics might actually kill this country.  I'm serious."

Heh.

Regnad Kcin's picture

This Bloomberg vid is a bit long, but Jim Rogers has some interesting observations on the economy and the currency and recession and "truth in government".

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Rogers%20Calls%20Fannie%2C%20Freddie%20Rescue%20Plan%20a%20%60Disaster'&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vIQvD7yNni2I.asf

D. Boon's picture

Heh.

Ah, if only I had a dollar for each time I got the famous IP "Heh." when discussing the problems in Iraq over the last few years ...

Gramm wasn't disowned for what he said... but the way he said it.

It is my opinion that McCain distanced himself from Gramm (who will definitely be back if McCain wins) because of Gramm's ties to the Enron scandal and the deregulation of the mortgage securities sector.  I don't think anyone is even bothering to dispute the fact that the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act is one of the main causes of the collapse of the mortgage industry anymore.  It was going to be tough to have to sit through endless ads and attacks on Gramm's horrific actions as a Senator, all with the "John McCain's top economic advisor" tag added in.  So, consistent with the tone of his campaign, McCain through his old good friend under the bus faster than you can "foreclosure".

It will be interesting to see how many times the word "deregulate" is invoked positively and negatively during this campaign.  It seems to me the common wisdom is now pointing toward that word as toxic, akin to saying "Liberal" a few years ago, or "terrorist sympathizer".  Anyone pushing for more deregulation to solve our economic problems is going to be met with a collective blank stare.  Thus, Gramm, the great deregulator, can sit the rest of this campaign out.

IlliniPundit's picture

"It will be interesting to see how many times the word "deregulate" is invoked positively and negatively during this campaign.  It seems to me the common wisdom is now pointing toward that word as toxic, akin to saying "Liberal" a few years ago, or "terrorist sympathizer".  Anyone pushing for more deregulation to solve our economic problems is going to be met with a collective blank stare."

Heh again.

"Deregulation" is the new "terrorist sympathizer." 

You're on a roll this morning.

D. Boon's picture

Thanks!  I'll take that as a compliment.

To shed a little light, my geeky-ass-self has spent my free time studying up a bit on the state of our economy.  I am very, very worried, though I won't bore you with the details.  There are fundamental problems in this country right now that will not be quickly fixed, but which must be addressed immediately.  I am not kidding when I say that four more years of neglect will prove disasterous for this country.

But perhaps I am being melodramatic.  If so, I apologize (I hear the word "hyperbole" somewhere in our future).  But at least know that I am not pulling my melodrama out of my tush.  It is my research that has led me to paranoia, not the other way 'round.

In the meantime, it sure is a beautiful day!  At least we don't have to worry about the homeless freezing to death tonight.  We'll leave those worries 'til December.

I agree whole heartedly. The recession the so called experts speak of is only to make the democratic party sound better than they really are. There is no recession problems yes. This country has bigger problems than just a recession. Dont get me wrong i love my country but we do have some serious problems. thanks for you comment

All I can say is come on November 2008.  Once the election has taken place, hopefully we can put this all behind us, it's such a political thing.  It's certainly not that we don't have problems, but to overstate them and cause mass confusion and panic is a ploy to upstage one party from another.  Let's get on with it.