In the absence of anything new or interesting to say about tonight's Pennsylvania Primary, I wanted to share one of my new favorite polling/election analysis sites, fivethirtyeight.com.
About today/tonight:
Two things you should not pay attention to tomorrow without proper context:
(1) Leaked exit polls, which have been way off this cycle, and been slanted an average of 7 points in Obama's direction. A substantial Clinton lead in the exit polls might be taken modestly more seriously than, say, something that showed Obama three points ahead, but these things aren't designed for what you think they're designed for -- just ignore them.
(2) Very early returns, such as in the first hour after polls close. Because there are such profound regional differences in the way that Pennsylvania polls, the results will be almost entirely a function of where the numbers are coming in from. Odds are that rural areas will report their results before the cities, which means that the early numbers should favor Clinton (this may actually be a nontrivial advantage to her in terms of media narrative; the race could very easily be called for her when the ticker shows Clinton ahead by 14, but things could close to within 8 points once all votes were counted).
Good stuff. If you're a junkie like me, you can just go there and keep reading.
UPDATE: Question for discussion: Why does Obama do better in exit polling than in actual results? Or, to ask it another way, why does Obama do worse in actual voting than in exit polling? And does that tell us anything about other polling for Obama?
I have no actual knowledge here but am just tossing out a guess....
I think Obama does better in the exits because of the "shenanigan quotient." The ditto-head Hillary backers switch sides, waltz in and vote for Hillary, then SAY they voted for Obama.
It's fun and legal!
(I really think we should fix this...)
ImperfectUnion.com
That would be more plausible if the effect hadn't been noted in New Hampshire, which voted when the GOP race was still very much active.
I think you should be registered with a party for 6 months before you can vote in that party's primary. Is that what you mean?
I think it may be less of an Obama effect than a Hillary effect. She has the highest unfavorable ratings, most of which is made up of folks who have a "very unfavorable" view of her. I'm sure her supporters are well aware of that fact and many, especially those who are pretty close to being on the fence, are probably less likely to admit they support her, even to a polling strangers. We're in Obama country here, (home state and a university town), so finding a Hillary supporter takes some work. But even on the net, Hillary supporters are practically persona non grata on DailyKos and other political hot spots there have been Obamaniacs that rival the Ron Paulians in their bluntness towards those who do not support the candidate they're idolizing.
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Glock21 Op/Ed
Then there's the hidden racial bias -- those who will claim to have voted for Barack Obama when they simply couldn't make themselves do it in the voting booth. I wonder how significant this percentage really is.
Politicalchemy... and of course the opposite phenomenon. People who aren't racist or have any racial bias who don't want to be seen as such for supporting the candidate they think is better for reasons that have nothing to do with race... especially with accusations flying that people aren't supporting Obama because he's black.
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Glock21 Op/Ed
Glock:
Good point. Your observation characterizes a different type of voter, but the votes that go undetected in the exit polls add up all the same.
This really points out another disturbing phenomenon -- that there may be a significant portion of the voting population that will not be truthful about who they voted for. This might not be new, of course, but what is it about? Why wouldn't they simply refuse to answer?
I can think of a few reasons, but I'm interested in other points of view.
Who wants to be deemed racist?
It is the ultimate attack on whites - the mere accusation appears to be conclusive of guilt and there is no defense once charged.
I don't dislike Barack because he's black. I dislike him because he lacks substance.