In this year of the "momentumless" Presidential Primaries, in which nobody is able to capitalize on a victory due the compressed calendar, there is one glaring exception: the negative momentum of Rudy Giuliani, who now trails in his "firewall" Florida and even in his home state of New York.
And the trend in the national polling, which cannot bode well for the Mayor's fortune's on Super Tuesday (purple line is Giuliani):
Rudy still has an outside shot at winning Florida, and maybe that will reverse his slide. But at this point, I'm realistically left hoping that John McCain is the Republican nominee. As nauseating as that is, the alternatives of Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee are worse.
UPDATE: Geraghty thinks Rudy isn't dead yet:
If Giuliani loses, say, 30 percent to 31 percent to McCain, he's viable. Yes, I realize some recent polls have him down in his Feb. 5 trifecta - New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, but I think that's a short-lived McCain bump. By winning South Carolina, McCain is ensured another week of his flaws being described by Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, etc.
Giuliani should get a decent number of California's delegates, maybe Delaware's, probably a chunk of Illinois'. Then the following week, another chunk of Maryland and the District of Columbia's. You figure he's got a shot at the Feb. 19 Republican primaries, Wisconsin & Washington State. Five days later, Puerto Rico. On March 4, he should play well in three of the five — Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont.
His road to the nomination is extremely hard. His road to having a big pile of delegates at the convention to barter with is fairly easy.
Meh. I'm left hoping for McCain and/or a brokered convention.
Rudy... At least he'll be free to date again.
the rise of McCain was amazing. Huckabee too. My only consolation is that maybe the pro-lifers in the base have been looking to rally around anyone but Rudy. I wish it had been around Fred though.