All I can say is, "Ugh."
Chicagoland dairy magnate and investment manager Jim Oberweis filed paperwork yesterday paving the way for a possible bid to replace former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert in Illinois' 14th Congressional District. Eric Krol of the Daily Herald has the details.
Oberweis has been running more or less a perpetual campaign for public office for the last six years. He was unsuccessful in two bids for the Republican nomination for the US Senate (finishing 2nd in 2002 and 2004) and one bid for the Republican nomination for Illinois Governor (finishing 2nd to Judy Baar Topinka in 2006).
It's widely presumed that fomer Speaker Denny Hastert will not run for re-election, leaving the 14th District as a heaviliy GOP open seat.
UPDATE: An early analysis:
[M]y prediction is that Lauzen wins.
In the 2006 Republican primary, Kane County represented 58% of the total votes in the 14th District. Kendall represented 17%. Obviously those two counties, Kane in particular, are must wins for the nomination. Oberweis' poorest showing in Kane was in 2004 (29%, compared to 56% and 40% in ’02 and ’06, respectively) when the race included a State Senator from Kane (Rauschenberger). I think the same dynamic will play out in ’08, and Lauzen will beat Oberweis in Kane.
In Kendall, Lauzen already has a base (his district includes part of the county), while Oberweis has seen his number go down from 61% in ’02 to 42% and 37% in ’06 and ’04, respectively, even though no “favorite son” was in the picture in the later two cycles. Once again, I predict a Lauzen win in Kendall. Lauzen also won most of the western counties in the district when he ran for Comptroller in '98.
If Oberweis is willing to set his sights lower than Governor and U.S. Senator in order to get elected, maybe he should skip Congress and run for Lauzen's State Senate seat.
Of course, it's unlikely that seat would have only two candidates running for it - State Rep. Tim Schmitz is often presumed to be the "moderate" candidate. But if Oberweis ran for Lauzen's State Senate seat, I wouldn't find that nearly as noxious.
You know, back in the good old days, Oberweis could just give a bunch of money to somebody that might actually be a good candidate. Now, because of restrictions on donations, he actually has to run himself.
"You know, back in the good old days, Oberweis could just give a bunch of money to somebody that might actually be a good candidate. Now, because of restrictions on donations, he actually has to run himself. "
And if he self-funds, the contribution limits for everyone else escalate, which means that he can't just write himself a huge check without consequences.
Personally, I hope he gets beat like a drum. He's never been interested in the GOP except when he's been a candidate. If he wants to prove something to me (and why would he?), he should run for Township Committeemen or some other similarly thankless job.
And if he self-funds, the contribution limits for everyone else escalate, which means that he can't just write himself a huge check without consequences.
Can you explain that? If Obi writes his campaign a $10 million check, what could Mike Ditka do supporting his favorite candidate that he couldn't do before?
Here you go:
OK, so Obi spends $10 million of his own money and Ditka can call all his friends and they can donate $12k a piece to their guy. He only needs 833 friends to even things up. Right?
Close - if Oberweis spends $10 million, then individial donation limit is raised to $2,300 x 12, or $27,600, and the PAC donation limit is $5,000 x 12 - or $60,000.
Plus, the "soft money" Party Committees, like the ILGOP, which can raise money in unlimited amounts, can spend and coordinate as much as they want with the non-self-funding candidates. The PAC money limit and the soft money coordination are really the more significant factors.
Ok. Now, in a primary, the ILGOP stuff probably wouldn't come into play. But, Ditka could form a PAC and donate straight to a campaign - up to $87,600 per - so he only needs 113 friends now. That isn't too bad.
I also note that the stuff you quoted talkes about Senate candidates - same rules for the House?
"Now, in a primary, the ILGOP stuff probably wouldn't come into play."
With Oberweis, it would.
"But, Ditka could form a PAC and donate straight to a campaign - up to $87,600 per - so he only needs 113 friends now. That isn't too bad."
Ditka (or his PAC) could also donate $2 million to the ILGOP and specifically designate it for expenditures on behalf of Oberweis' opponent. Coordination would be allowed.
"I also note that the stuff you quoted talkes about Senate candidates - same rules for the House?"
Yes, I'm almost certain.
If the only way to keep Obie from running another statewide race is to get him elected to the CD14 seat, then PLEASE DO SO. If he loses that race, he'll just run for gov again in 2010, trash the other Republican candidates, and still lose. Gordy, this is our chance to be rid of him! Losses don't seem to stop him, perhaps a win will.
"Gordy, this is our chance to be rid of him!"
Heh.
There's got to be a better way than giving him a Congressional seat....
Very interesting thread. I thought that whoever got the most primary votes moved on to the general election. It seems to me that if a candidate (Obi) gets the mosts votes, he becomes the candidate. Why not just let the voters of the Republican party decide who should run? If you don't like Obi, I don't, work for someone else, but trashing a potential candidate so soon is odd, as is the sentiment, "If he wants to prove something to me (and why would he?), he should run for Township Committeemen or some other similarly thankless job.".
When and where was Guliani a precinct committeman, or McCain, or Romney, or Fred Thompson? Just curious.
"Now, in a primary, the ILGOP stuff probably wouldn't come into play."
With Oberweis, it would.
LOL :-)
thanks for the education
"When and where was Guliani a precinct committeman, or McCain, or Romney, or Fred Thompson? Just curious."
My beef with Oberweis is that he only became interested in GOP politics when he himself wanted to run for office. And that he would only run for the highest office available, and never showed any interest in actually working in government and getting any experience. And that he spends large amounts of his own money not building the GOP, but attacking other candidates who would dare oppose him in his personal quest for political glory and power.
The next time Oberweis does any party-building will be the first.
The next time Oberweis shows any interest in any GOP candidate other than himself will be the first.
None of those criticisms apply to Giuliani, McCain, Fred Thompson, or even Romney, for whom I have very little regard as a candidate.
It saddens me that so many Illinois Republicans still support this charlatan knowing full well that every campaign he's ever run has been about boosting his own ego and destroying every other Republican that doesn't support him.
Guliani's first race: Mayor of NYC, McCain's first race, Senate, Thompson's first race, Senate. Denny Hastert remains a PC, and worked his way up. Even TVJ started low, Urbana City Council, and worked his way up.
The criticism of Obi starting out running for a big office doesn't hold water if it is a slam. Being interested in the Party only if you are running casts a wide net. Lots and lots of candidates drop out of sight until it's time to gear up for a campaign. Locally, who is going to run for (fill-in-the-blank)? Are there legions of worker bees from whom candidates will be drawn, or maybe others who are interested in running who have not been "party activists"?
I don't like Obi, Ii think he is a way too far right flake, but saying, in effect, he shouldn't run because he hasn't done anything for the Party, is not very democratic (small d).
"I don't like Obi, Ii think he is a way too far right flake, but saying, in effect, he shouldn't run because he hasn't done anything for the Party, is not very democratic (small d)."
I'm not saying he shouldn't run. I'm saying that I won't support him, and that I wish other Republicans would support a Republican candidate who is willing to support Republicans and willing to work together to build the GOP.
Frankly, I hope Oberweis runs, spends $10 million, and gets 10 percent and fourth place in the Primary. Then in 2010 he'll run for Governor again, and say several spectacularly stupid statements, just like he always does.
What a buffoon. He's a poisonous influence on the GOP, and I can't believe anyone still supports him.
Guliani was a public prosecutor before being elected Mayor, McCain was a former POW vet before getting elected to Congress, Romney saved the Salt Lake Olympics before being elected Governor (and his father was a former MI governor), and Thompson had worked in Washington before being elected Senator (though it was really because of his movie roles).
Obie has run his family business (with his brother).
Seems like the experience and credibility gap is more than slight. Unlike Gordy, though, I actually hope he wins in CD14 because Republicans will have a better chance of winning the 2010 gov race if Obie and his IFI masters have no part in it.
"The next time Oberweis shows any interest in any GOP candidate other than himself will be the first."
"It saddens me that so many Illinois Republicans still support this charlatan knowing full well that every campaign he's ever run has been about boosting his own ego and destroying every other Republican that doesn't support him."
Not quite. He was the first to donate to Jack Ryan after he lost to him, and he held a big fundraiser for Judy Baar Topinka after he lost to her.
When Thompson was 30 years old, he ran Howard Baker's reelection campaign to the U.S. senate. So at the very least he did campaign work there. Of course, it is highly unlikely that he'd have that position with Baker if he hadn't done some lesser campaign work in the preceeding years. don't know if he was a committeeman, but he certainly worked in the trenches.
"Not quite. He was the first to donate to Jack Ryan after he lost to him, and he held a big fundraiser for Judy Baar Topinka after he lost to her."
His first contribution to any GOP candidate was the year he first started running for office himself - clearly self-interested.
After he lost to JBT in 2006, he spent weeks telling the media how Bill Brady was a Topinka plant.
Oberweis has never shown any loyalty to anyone other than himself. I hope GOP voters show him the same sort of loyalty that he's shown the GOP over the years.
Your really don't like him - whoooo!
"Your really don't like him - whoooo!"
I'm sure he's a perfectly fine individual.
But he's spent years trying to poison the IL GOP, and made not a single effort to do anything positive for anyone other than himself. So he's a terrible candidate, especially for the high offices his ego demands that he seek.
IP, there is more than one way to look at Obi. Your way seems to be he is a terrible candidate for the Party, because he has tried to "poison" the Party at worst, and just not helping at the best. On top of that, he is a loser.
On the other hand, if viewed as Obi has chosen to run a less organizational, non- grass-roots campaign, and more a campaign of buying media presentations to get his message to the voters, it is just a new, maybe not so new, way off doing it.. Two ways to accomplish the same thing, to get votes to get elected. Door-to-door, calling trees and parades, or big media buys.
He wouldn't make a good candidate for the PARTY, not because he doesn't run a grass roots campaign, doesn't campaign with others, and doesn't contribute, or even because he sits out on the right fringe challenging others to come to his way of thinking, it's because he'll get creamed by anybody the Democrats run against him.
Oh, there's always more than one way to look at things.
I'm sure Oberweis thinks he's saving the GOP from itself, or from evil hacks like me.
That said, I'm not all that hard to convince - I'll welcome just about anybody into GOP at just about any time. I just want Oberweis to do something - anything - to prove that he's interested in the Party and in politics for some reason beyond his own self-interest and self-promotion.
You know, if he really wants to save the GOP from "moderates" like Rep. Hastert and Rep. Cross, why doesn't Oberweis back out and do everything in his power to elect someone like conservative State Sen. Chris Lauzen? Or work to organize a pro-business, anti-tax group, in conjuction with or an alternative to the State Chamber of Commerce?
Either one of those would be constructive options, but Oberweis won't have anything to do with either one, because, to Oberweis, it's always about Oberweis, and nothing else.
"If he wants to prove something to me (and why would he?), he should run for Township Committeemen or some other similarly thankless job."
There's an opening in Schaumburg Township...
So, if someone believes there is a political void in Illinois, and they decide to run for office, you will only accept them as a candidate if they prove their allegence to the Party first? Come up through the ranks? Support your candidates first? Then you might give them a chance?
I think we would lose out on some potentially great leaders if they all had to pass your test. I don't believe a candidate has to "do their time" before being able to represent me. If they share my views and show the ability to lead, I will consider them seriously.
Actually, I would be ecstatic if there were dozens of major candidates like Oberweis who didn't come from inside our current poor choices of mainstream parties.
It's just a shame that the one we have is such an earth-shatteringly bad candidate.
"So, if someone believes there is a political void in Illinois, and they decide to run for office, you will only accept them as a candidate if they prove their allegence to the Party first? Come up through the ranks? Support your candidates first? Then you might give them a chance?"
No - but if they spend millions of dollars attacking other Republicans in multiple laughably-incompetent campaigns, without doing any of the things you list above, then I'm not going to support them.
"I think we would lose out on some potentially great leaders if they all had to pass your test. I don't believe a candidate has to "do their time" before being able to represent me."
I don't either - not having served his time isn't my only beef with Oberweis - it's mainly that he's all about Oberweis, all the time, attacks other Republicans often, and hasn't done anything to ever help anyone but himself.
"If they share my views and show the ability to lead, I will consider them seriously."
He's taken mulitple positions on just about every issue, so he's got you covered there. But leadership? Oberweis has shown that he likes writing big checks to attack other Republicans, and that he runs a good dairy company, but that's it. He's demonstrated no leadership at all that didn't involve him promoting himself.
Oberweis became an unlikely sympathetic figure when the party, in its infinite wisdom, was so determined to snub him that it went with Keyes instead. That worked out well. If the party had put that much effort into electing any one Republican instead of defeating any one Republican, it might be relevant today.
"Oberweis became an unlikely sympathetic figure when the party, in its infinite wisdom, was so determined to snub him that it went with Keyes instead. That worked out well. If the party had put that much effort into electing any one Republican instead of defeating any one Republican, it might be relevant today."
If Oberweis had done anything at all constructive prior to or since that snub, I might find him sympathetic. He took what little goodwill he had garnered and used it to attack other Republicans on multiple occasions. So instead of sympathetic, I find him to be poisonous.
That said, Oberweis's still a better candidate than Alan Keyes. Of course, so are several million other Illinoisans.
Unfortunately, I have an uneasy feeling about many of the Republican leaders in Illinois. Many are too willing to work within a system that is meant to keep the GOP permanently crippled. There seems to be a lot of in fighting. Any potential leader gets attacked by other factions within the Party. I don't necessarily believe that all Republicans in Illinois should be immune from criticism by candidates. I also don't trust that moving up through the Illinois GOP, as it exists now, will produce the kind of leader we need.
"Unfortunately, I have an uneasy feeling about many of the Republican leaders in Illinois. Many are too willing to work within a system that is meant to keep the GOP permanently crippled. There seems to be a lot of in fighting."
All very true. And the infighting is vicious because the stakes are so small.
"Any potential leader gets attacked by other factions within the Party. I don't necessarily believe that all Republicans in Illinois should be immune from criticism by candidates."
I've never said that all criticism is unwarranted, or that any leader should be immune. Generally, I believe in the 11th Commandment, but I'm OK with criticism - but the critic had better have earned some credibility with me first, and the criticism better be constructive. Oberweis has earned no credibility, despite three statewide runs, and has nothing he's done for the GOP has ever been constructive.
"I also don't trust that moving up through the Illinois GOP, as it exists now, will produce the kind of leader we need."
Neither do I. I do think that "moving up through the Illinois GOP" - if it means spending some time working on behalf of other candidates, the party, or an extra-party organization - can earn some credibility and some trust, as well as valuable early support.
I tend to think our best hopes for effective leaders will come from within the Congressional delegation, because they're largely seperated from the morass that is Springfield and the State GOP.