Sixty

Some people are speculating, because of a favorable map, President Bush's unpopularity, the Iraq War and general national Republican stupidity, that the Democrats may reach a filibuster-proof 60-seats in the United States Senate.

It's unlikely, and it would almost certainly take until 2010, but here's their initial forecast for 2008:

Many Republican strategists thought their party had hit rock bottom on Election Day 2006, but the political reality is that things have gotten measurably worse since then.

The raw numbers also point to a strong Democratic year in 2008. Democrats have just 12 seats to defend as compared to 21 for Republicans -- by far the best ratio of the three Senate classes. (The 2010 class has 17 Democrats and 15 Republicans; the 2012 class has 19 Democrats and 15 Republicans.)

But, it is not just the raw numbers. There are five obvious pickup opportunities for Democrats even at this early stage of the cycle: the open seat in Colorado as well as seats currently held by Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Norm Coleman (Minn.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), and John Sununu (N.H.).

In Colorado, Republicans haven't yet settled on a candidate and Democrats have made considerable gains at the state and federal level in the past few elections. Collins, Coleman, Smith and Sununu all represent states carried by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass) in the 2004 presidential race, and, given the tough political environment, may struggle to convince voters to re-elect them.

To avoid this, it would help if national Republicans will wise up.  But I'm not betting on that.

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Handy Smurf's picture

The math just isn't there.  Collins was a top target last time, won by nearly 20%, and has approvals in the 70s.

Political fanfics aren't any better than other fanfics.