Lots of bad news for Illinois Republicans today, or so it would seem.
The Tribune released more details about its statewide poll today:
The percentage of Illinois voters who call themselves Democrats is at its highest pre-election level in more than a decade, posing a problem for Republicans trying to win the governor's mansion and key congressional seats, a Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.
The poll found 43 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats while a little more than a quarter of the voters identified themselves as Republicans. The 17 percentage point difference ranks among the most polarized partisan spreads in more than 16 years of Tribune surveys taken prior to an election day.
Rich Miller has analysis and discussion, including an excellent bit of history (the partisan breakdown of Survey USA's monthly tracking poll). Basically, Survey USA says that the gap between Democrats and Republicans has been as high as 22 points (June and August).
A couple of comments on the Trib poll.
- Despite the somewhat shoddy reputation of the Trib poll, I think the partisan breakdown is probably mostly accurate, given what we've seen from other statewide polls.
- I've seen a lot of downstate legislative polling in 2006, and I've not seen the partisan breakdown shift so heavily towards the Democrats, although there has been a shift.
- There are two possible explanations for this. The first is that every pollster and every poll I've seen downstate has failed to document a much-greater Democratic shift. The second is that the vast majority of the partisan shift towards Democrats is occurring in Chicago and Cook County. The Tribune doesn't detail, by region, what kind of shifts its poll found. And the Survey USA polls don't cross-tab their polls so that you can compare partisan composition across regions.
In a nutshell, I expect Chicago and Cook County to vote more heavily Democrat than ever, as Mayor Daley needs to reinvigorate the machine, Todd Stroger runs for Cook County Board President and Gov. Blagojevich needs every vote from Cook County. And I expect downstate, as a whole, to vote more Republican (or, more properly, vote more anti-Blagojevich) than it did in 2004 and 2002, but less so than it did in the 1990s.
And I expect regionalism to be even more pronounced after the election.
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There. Beat you to it.
I expect Chicago and Cook County to vote more heavily Democrat than ever, as Mayor Daley needs to reinvigorate the machine ...
Wha? How does Rich Daley's need to "reinvigorate the machine" translate into Cook County voting more Democratic? Does he have some sort of magic wand he can wave to make the robots vote for his minions? Perhaps the folks up there are happy with the way things are going in the city and state, but less happy with the way things are going on the federal level? Maybe your candidate sucks. Maybe tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts is no really an idea after all?
There are lots of explanations for the shift to the left. Daley's "machine" is hardly a relevant factor, unless you mean to imply that Chicagoans are, for the most part, perfectly happy with the machine. Which, of course, proves my point about politics: they are all scoundrels, vote for the one that helps your family.
In Chicago, that guy is Daley. In Springfield, the guy is Blago. In Washington, that guy doesn't exist.
Every candidate considering a campaign for Mayor of Chicago will test drive their organizations this fall. That includes Mayor Daley and Rep. Jackson. The machine needs to be reinvigorated because the last time it was tested, the 2004 Primary, it was soundly defeated by the organization put together by Obama.
Unless, of course, the machine is being watched so closely by US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald that they really won't be a factor.
Isn't prognosticating fun?
Don't forget the "Collar Counties" around Chicago - they've been GOP-dominated for a while, but have been moving Dem-ward of late.
I think it's fair to say that you have more polling data to work from than I do, but I don't know if it's a one-or-the-other proposition. US House races in the Chicagoland area have become much more competitive recently, but that is in large part because that was already the most competitive part of the state - Republican-voting, but not so strongly so as downstate.
I don't have numbers to put forward, but my neighborhood, which is on the Cook/Dupage boundary to the West of Chicago, has definitely become more 50/50. When I was growing up around here, it was predominately Republican. In the northern burbs there still seems to be strong Republican support, gaged solely by the preponderance of GOP candidate signs 2 years ago.
Illinois is being described as " California Lite".
If the GOP can't win the collar counties, it's over.
Indiana and Iowa seem like attractive alternatives - I just don't know if I could ever become a Hoosier or Hawkeye fan :-)
"Indiana and Iowa seem like attractive alternatives - I just don't know if I could ever become a Hoosier or Hawkeye fan"
Way to go rsw, sell us out and move to hoosier/hawkeye country....
I don't like the fact that IL is blue through and through, but I guess that's just a part of living in this great(?) state.
PS: I'd go Missouri Tiger before I'd go Hoosier/Hawkeye...