Surprisingly, the bloggers and media haven’t picked up on the enthusiasm of state Senator Dan Rutherford’s formal announcement that he’s running for Secretary of State. I was in Pontiac Monday night during Dan’s announcement and could feel the excitement build in the room as Rutherford proclaimed, “We can do this!” It’s true, Jesse will be hard to beat, but I seriously doubt he’s looking forward to running against Dan Rutherford in November 2006.
Rather than join the immediate nay-sayers, I’ll chime in with my two cents on how Rutherford can win.
Jesse White factors
Is Jesse in? Most assume so. Heck, he had campaign shirts that read “102 Counties” at Democrat Day at the State Fair. But I’ve yet to see his formal campaign announcement and until I do, I’m convinced there’s a chance he gracefully bows out. Jesse’s 71-years-old (72 by the next election) and has to have thoughts of “enough’s enough”. He knows the battle he’s in for against Dan Rutherford. Is his health up to it? Is the current SOS office clean enough to avoid the tentacles of U.S. Attorney Pat Fitzgerald? Does Jesse have the fire in the belly anymore?
Jim Edgar factor
If Jim Edgar runs (that’s a big “if”), the Republican ticket in 2006 is – to say the least – a great bet. Please see 1994 for an example.
Rod Blagojevich factor
Rod Blagojevich’s popularity is tanking. The entire Illinois Democratic Party has to wonder how hard his negativity will impact them. White, although not close to Blagojevich, is not immune.
The issues
Rutherford dominates on the issues. Dan will listen to people’s complaints about the SOS office and provide meaningful and cost-efficient solutions. Everyone has had a negative experience with a local SOS office – long lines, lack of technology, lost renewal stickers in the mail – Dan’s job is to turn these problems into reasons to support his candidacy.
Other considerations
Rutherford will have no primary. He’s built an outstanding base of support, and it’s hard to imagine another credible Republican running against him. That aside, who would want to run against White if they actually beat Rutherford?!
For all its difficulties and factions, the Illinois Republican Party is absolutely, 100% united behind Dan Rutherford.
Dan Rutherford factors
I cannot imagine a stronger grassroots organization than Rutherford is building (and, for the most part, has already built). His pool of campaign volunteers will easily stretch into the thousands. Jesse won't win 102 counties against Rutherford. Taking a county-by-county approach, Dan stacks up well against White. While White's assured victory in Chicago/Cook, the real question is how big are the margins? Does the Chicago machine give Jesse enough votes to trump Dan's flawless operation throughout the other 101 counties?
Rutherford’s fiscal conservativeness drives his campaign staff nuts, but will pay huge dividends for him. Even if White can generate more campaign funds, Dan can stretch $1 into $4, if not more.
Finally, Dan is – and we all know it – a tireless worker. He answers every e-mail, returns every phone call and absolutely runs a flawless constituent services program. Who wouldn’t want him handling the service office of state government?
Conclusion
There’s potential for a great deal of negative response to this post. I agree – it’s not going to be easy. I’m just not ready to write Dan off quite yet. He’s spent his life preparing for this campaign, and if Jesse’s going to beat him, he’s going to have to work for it.
Here's one factor. I just had to wait 2 months and 3 weeks for the Secretary of State's office to print out a duplicate title ($65) for my car. Of course, the first one that they printed out was incorrect (it had the wrong VIN number on it... how can they get THAT wrong on something like a title?), and it had to be sent back, and they had to research how they produced a title with bad information.
A few days after I received the second title, they sent me a registration renewal form, and my street address was wrong on it.
Calling the Secretary of State's office in Springfield throughout all of this was a sheer waste of time. The people who staff the phones have no idea what is going on, and their only real answer is to "wait longer".
Do we want to even mention the level of "service" at the office on Bradley Avenue? I avoid that place if at all possible.
Jesse.... ANYONE but you. The Secretary of State's office is an absolute mess. My government at work. What a joke.
Great post, Mr. Barickman.
I think Jesse White's popularity is perceived as being much, much higher than it really it for two reasons:
1. He has a ton of people working for him in SOS facilities around the state, and obviously they like him very much and show up at things like the State Fair and parades.
2. Kris Cohn was the worst statewide candidate I can ever remember. White drubbed her thoroughly, but I'm convinced that a hardworking, creative opponent like Rutherford will make this race interesting. The hard part will be raising his name recognition to a level high enough that he'll poll well - otherwise the Chicago media outlets will completely write him off.
Last time I went to simply renew my license on a weekday morning (not evening or weekend), I had to wait over two hours before my number was called.
After White took over the SOS office, they were models of eficiency. I was amazed at how little wait there was to do anything. NOW, their budget has been cut by Blago. Don't blame White.
Frerichs gets a primary?
Jakobsson will have a close race?
Black will run for state senate?
Edgar runs for governor?
Rutherford has a chance to beat Jesse?
Wow, the republican delusions are in no short supply on IP.
There was a story in the Rockford Register Star last winter where he announced he was running again but I can't find it with Google.
Frerichs gets a primary?
I thought it was likely, and I was wrong.
Jakobsson will have a close race?
Never said that. She's as safe as they come unless the Dems get sick of being represented by a sock puppet.
Black will run for state senate?
I've said it's 50/50. He either runs for the Senate or retires entirely.
Edgar runs for governor?
I think it's likely, but also not definite. It's not as if these people have made up their minds yet. We're all trying to guess what they're going to do. Key word: guess.
Rutherford has a chance to beat Jesse?
Sure, everyone has a chance, as does Rutherford. Is it likely - no. But stranger things have happened before, as recently as 1994.
Never said that. She's as safe as they come ...
Jason once had a post refering to Jakobsson as "vulnerable"
I shouldn't be making fun of what was said here, though. I think your optimism and hopefully thinking that the impossible will happen is is cute.
Come to think of it, that post could have been Right of Wright, not sure.
Jakobsson is vulnerable in a handful of ways (pensions, especially), but given the likely challengers, I don't think she's going to have much of a race unless the Dems try to beat her in a Primary, which is unlikely.
Kris Cohn was the worst statewide candidate I can ever remember.
Worse than Alan Keyes?
Worse than Alan Keyes?
Yes. At least you knew who Alan Keyes was. At least he could generate some attention by being ridiculous. Cohn was completely unknown outside of her home turf, which was Rockford, I think. It was like she wasn't even trying...
I think Keyes' biggest problem was that people did know who he was.
I think Keyes' biggest problem was that people did know who he was.
Exactly. Cohn could have robbed a bank and no one would have noticed.
White will run again. Expect an anouncement in early October.
Anyone who saw him on Democrat Day at the Fair knows that he has the energy to run. He struck me as the most energetic and enthusiastic statewide elected there. His age doesn't show.